As I quantified in a commentary on the subject two years ago, a bad winter can indeed put a chill into the economy, at least temporarily.
It may be almost impossible to underestimate the gullibility of professional Fed watchers.
The Federal Reserve's years-long campaign to sheepishly back away from its own policy forecasts continued in earnest last week when it officially reduced the four expected 2016 quarter point hikes, suggested back in December, to just two.
Making their annual pilgrimage to the exclusive Swiss ski sanctuary of Davos last week, the world's political and financial elite once again gathered without having had the slightest idea of what was going on in the outside world.
Last week a major diplomatic crisis developed between Saudi Arabia and Iran over the Saudi execution of Nimr al Nimr, a charismatic Shiite cleric and anti-Sunni political activist.
The image of George W Bush on the flight deck comes to mind in much of the reaction to this week's decision by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade
Over the past year, while the U.S. economy has continually missed expectations, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen has assured all who could stay awake during her press conferences that it was strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policy.
Since we have had the monetary wind at our back for so many years, at least a few have begun to question our ability to make economic and financial gains against actual headwinds.
Most economists and investors readily acknowledge that the current period of central bank activism, characterized by extended bouts of quantitative easing and zero percent interest rates, is a newly-blazed trail in economic history.
A deep bench of excuses, ranging from the weather to the Chinese economy, has been called on to justify why the US economy hasn't built up any noticeable steam, and why the Fed has failed to move rates off zero
There is a growing sense across the financial spectrum that the world is about to turn some type of economic page.
Fasten your seat belts, this ride is getting interesting.
Over the past few years observing changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy has been a little like watching paint dry or grass grow...only not as exciting.
While the world can count dozens of important currencies, when it comes to top line financial and investment discussions, the currency marketplace really comes down to a one-on-one cage match between the two top contenders: the U.S. Dollar and the Euro.
The recent nuclear non-proliferation agreement between Iran and the U.S. has created a firestorm debate in the Middle East and both sides of the Atlantic.
Ironically, in a world awash in fiat currencies that are created at an ever increasing pace, and whose value is solely derived from faith in the issuing state, gold is the only form of money whose value does not require a leap of faith.
As in Greece, the Puerto Rican economy has been destroyed by its participation in an unrealistic monetary system that it does not control and the failure of domestic politicians to confront their own insolvency.
Based on the continued failure of the negotiating parties to make any substantive progress in the talks over Greek debt payments, the financial world is tied up in knots over a possible Greek exit from the European Union.
That the Fed is creating new bubbles that no one seems willing to confront or even acknowledge.
The problem hinges on the efficacy of the "seasonal' adjustments that are baked into the GDP methodology.
We live in an age where bad economic news is not only unwelcome, but it is routinely overlooked or excused.
The word was meant to convey the belief that central banking was best done for all to see in the full light of day, not in the murky back rooms of Washington and New York.
By simultaneously claiming to be both aggressive and defensive, and to be moving forward even while standing still, Yellen positioned the Fed as being all things to all people, thereby igniting a rally in all asset classes at the same time.
Although I have been critical of the Fed for many years, I never imagined that it would provide me with material that bordered on the metaphysical.
Last week a scene unfolded in Athens that provided all the visual and metaphorical symbols needed to define the current state of the global economy.