Recent Articles

Give'em the old razzle dazzle

Posted on March 24, 2015

By simultaneously claiming to be both aggressive and defensive, and to be moving forward even while standing still, Yellen positioned the Fed as being all things to all people, thereby igniting a rally in all asset classes at the same time.

A patient Fed considers losing patience

Posted on March 10, 2015

Although I have been critical of the Fed for many years, I never imagined that it would provide me with material that bordered on the metaphysical.

The bravado of borrowers

Posted on February 3, 2015

Last week a scene unfolded in Athens that provided all the visual and metaphorical symbols needed to define the current state of the global economy.

Switzerland wins as its central bank surrenders

Posted on January 20, 2015

If anyone had any doubt how severely the global economy has been distorted by the actions of central bankers, the "surprise" announcement last week by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to no longer peg the Swiss franc to the euro should provide a moment of crystal clarity.

Hurts so good: when exactly are falling prices bad?

Posted on January 4, 2015

The sudden fall in the price of oil provides a unique opportunity to examine the widely held belief that deflation is economic poison.

Could an energy bust trigger QE4?

Posted on December 22, 2014

In a normal economic times falling energy costs would be considered unadulterated good news.

Black gold loses glitter

Posted on December 15, 2014

The stunning 40% drop in the price of oil over the past few months has scrambled global economic forecasts, changed the geo-political landscape, and has severely pressured many energy sector investments.

Data driven or driven data

Posted on December 9, 2014

There can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience or intuition are driving the economic conversation.

Fed yearns for higher Inflation to disguise asset bubbles

Posted on December 3, 2014

The piece sheds important light on how the Federal Reserve's attitude regarding sub 2% inflation has changed significantly over the years.

The clock is ticking in Switzerland

Posted on November 24, 2014

All eyes should now be focused on the Swiss voters.

The Abenomics death spiral

Posted on November 19, 2014

As Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe has turned his country into a petri dish of Keynesian ideas, the trajectory of Japan's economy has much to teach us about the wisdom of those policies.

Contemplating stocks without QE

Posted on November 13, 2014

As far as stocks go, we have lived by QE. The only question now is, whether we will die without it.

It's the economy, and they're not stupid

Posted on November 6, 2014

The sharp rebuke to the Obama administration delivered by the mid-term elections should not be construed as an endorsement of the GOP, which remains as unpopular as ever.

Governments need inflation, economies don't

Posted on October 16, 2014

In an article in the UK's Telegraph on October 10, veteran economic correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard laid bare the essential truth of the nearly universal current embrace of inflation as an economic panacea.

Economic atonement

Posted on September 30, 2014

Increasingly, economists are calling the tune to which businesses and consumers dance.

Doubling down on inflation

Posted on September 10, 2014

Friday's release of disappointing August payroll numbers should have been a jarring wake-up call warning Wall Street that the economy has been treading on thin ice.

Despite growing risks it's still Janet Yellen's market

Posted on September 2, 2014

The current stock market is earning a deserved reputation as being coated in Teflon. Bad or disappointing news just doesn't appear to stick, and has done nothing to slow the market's upward trajectory.

Proposed 'exit fee' on bond mutual funds telling

Posted on June 23, 2014

Such thinking says much about the current fragility of our bond market.

Piketty's envy problem

Posted on May 29, 2014

There can be little doubt that Thomas Piketty's new book Capital in the 21st Century has struck a nerve globally.

See no evil

Posted on May 22, 2014

In this week's release of the minutes from its April 29-30 meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers made clear that they see little chance of inflation moving past their 2% target for years to come.

The Belgian Connection

Posted on May 19, 2014

A close look at international activity in the Treasury market reveals some odd patterns that should be explained.

Washington hates carrots, loves sticks

Posted on May 14, 2014

A widely-held maxim tells us that money tends to flow from where it is treated badly to where it is treated well. This trend has taken center stage in the ongoing battle between U.S. states to attract and retain top …

And the band played on

Posted on May 6, 2014

After three months of consistently disappointing jobs numbers, the markets were as keyed up for a good jobs report as a long suffering sailor awaiting shore leave in a tropical port.

The debate debate

Posted on April 29, 2014

While there is wide agreement that the cost of college education has risen far faster than the incomes of most Americans, there is some debate as to whether the quality of the product has kept pace with the price.

Investors ignore frightful geopolitics

Posted on April 17, 2014

When the former Soviet Union collapsed almost 25 years ago, most global strategic forecasters assumed that the U.S. would adapt pragmatically to her new status of sole world superpower.

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