Recent Articles

Black gold loses glitter

Posted on December 15, 2014

The stunning 40% drop in the price of oil over the past few months has scrambled global economic forecasts, changed the geo-political landscape, and has severely pressured many energy sector investments.

Data driven or driven data

Posted on December 9, 2014

There can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience or intuition are driving the economic conversation.

Fed yearns for higher Inflation to disguise asset bubbles

Posted on December 3, 2014

The piece sheds important light on how the Federal Reserve's attitude regarding sub 2% inflation has changed significantly over the years.

The clock is ticking in Switzerland

Posted on November 24, 2014

All eyes should now be focused on the Swiss voters.

The Abenomics death spiral

Posted on November 19, 2014

As Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe has turned his country into a petri dish of Keynesian ideas, the trajectory of Japan's economy has much to teach us about the wisdom of those policies.

Contemplating stocks without QE

Posted on November 13, 2014

As far as stocks go, we have lived by QE. The only question now is, whether we will die without it.

It's the economy, and they're not stupid

Posted on November 6, 2014

The sharp rebuke to the Obama administration delivered by the mid-term elections should not be construed as an endorsement of the GOP, which remains as unpopular as ever.

Governments need inflation, economies don't

Posted on October 16, 2014

In an article in the UK's Telegraph on October 10, veteran economic correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard laid bare the essential truth of the nearly universal current embrace of inflation as an economic panacea.

Economic atonement

Posted on September 30, 2014

Increasingly, economists are calling the tune to which businesses and consumers dance.

Doubling down on inflation

Posted on September 10, 2014

Friday's release of disappointing August payroll numbers should have been a jarring wake-up call warning Wall Street that the economy has been treading on thin ice.

Despite growing risks it's still Janet Yellen's market

Posted on September 2, 2014

The current stock market is earning a deserved reputation as being coated in Teflon. Bad or disappointing news just doesn't appear to stick, and has done nothing to slow the market's upward trajectory.

Proposed 'exit fee' on bond mutual funds telling

Posted on June 23, 2014

Such thinking says much about the current fragility of our bond market.

Piketty's envy problem

Posted on May 29, 2014

There can be little doubt that Thomas Piketty's new book Capital in the 21st Century has struck a nerve globally.

See no evil

Posted on May 22, 2014

In this week's release of the minutes from its April 29-30 meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers made clear that they see little chance of inflation moving past their 2% target for years to come.

The Belgian Connection

Posted on May 19, 2014

A close look at international activity in the Treasury market reveals some odd patterns that should be explained.

Washington hates carrots, loves sticks

Posted on May 14, 2014

A widely-held maxim tells us that money tends to flow from where it is treated badly to where it is treated well. This trend has taken center stage in the ongoing battle between U.S. states to attract and retain top …

And the band played on

Posted on May 6, 2014

After three months of consistently disappointing jobs numbers, the markets were as keyed up for a good jobs report as a long suffering sailor awaiting shore leave in a tropical port.

The debate debate

Posted on April 29, 2014

While there is wide agreement that the cost of college education has risen far faster than the incomes of most Americans, there is some debate as to whether the quality of the product has kept pace with the price.

Investors ignore frightful geopolitics

Posted on April 17, 2014

When the former Soviet Union collapsed almost 25 years ago, most global strategic forecasters assumed that the U.S. would adapt pragmatically to her new status of sole world superpower.

Meet "lowflation": Deflation's scary pal

Posted on April 4, 2014

Despite reams of evidence that show how an economy can thrive when prices fall, there is now a nearly universal belief that deflation is an economic poison.

Debt and taxes

Posted on March 23, 2014

The red flags contained in the national and global headlines that have come out thus far in 2014 should have spooked investors and economic forecasters.

Weather or not?

Posted on March 9, 2014

Everyone agrees that the winter just now winding down (hopefully) has been brutal for most Americans.

Janet Yellen's mission impossible

Posted on November 9, 2013

Unless other buyers of Treasuries or MBS can be found to replace the Fed's prodigious buying, the Fed will remain the only game in town.

Off to the races

Posted on September 3, 2013

The exhaustion of short-sellers paired with insatiable global physical demand has positioned gold for an exciting conclusion to a volatile year.

The half full economy

Posted on August 9, 2013

The marginal economic strength that was described in the most recent GDP release from Washington has caused many to double down on their belief that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering Quantitative Easing sometime later this year.

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