Gold broke out today.

I have my very long term-positions in place with physical Gold and Silver.  I also have my longer-term trading positions in place.  Now it's time to have some fun and put on some short-term positions and, as I like to say, put that oh so sweet icing on the cake.

Before I do that though I'd like to see a few more pieces to the puzzle fall into place.

Right now Gold broke above all resistance, and did it convincingly in the futures market, as well as the GLD ETF.

Gold must stay above support near $1,263.  It must also do so during Asian and European trading before we open again in North America tomorrow AM.

If the above condition can be satisfied, I will be satisfied that the chance we are at the very early stage of a major upwards move is greater than 50%.

That will warrant a trading position.

If a second day of the same condition can be met, that will tell me the chances are about 75% that we are now at a major move higher.  It will warrant another trading position.

If the third day (three times a charm) can also meet that condition then the chances are near 99% that a move above $1,500 is now underway.  This will also warrant another trading position.

That being said, there are powerful forces out there opposing Golds move higher.  They could certainly strike after all bullish conditions are met, and that's simply a part of trading Gold.  That's why I have to use stops.  Generally before I put on a trade I outline to myself how much I am willing to lose.

That's right.  I trade with the mindset that I will lose and take the trade off the table at that point.  As they say, if you take care of your losses, your winners will take care of you.

Let's take a quick look at the powerful move up today in the Gold futures and GLD.

Volume in the October Futures contract was very strong as Gold broke out higher this AM.  Now the market is closed and moving into what's termed the "access market" where only big players can trade and volume is usually light.  Many a takedowns have been initiated during this trading period, but as of 3:00 PM EST, it's looking good.

The GLD ETF saw great volume accompanying the breakout this AM.  It's looking brighter and brighter as every tick passes.  It seems last weeks move below support was indeed a bear trap as I pontificated in the weekend letter.

I was very, very close to closing out my trading positions Friday, but the 20 day moving average held and that was my last line of support.

I have to get back at it here but felt the need to let you know just how bullish this looks for now.  I still haven't put on any short term trading positions, so it's not too late to join in on the fun!


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Until next week take care and thank you for reading.

Warren Bevan

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