I've been waiting for a swing low to mark the daily cycle bottom and likely the intermediate cycle low also.
As long as we close positive today we will have that swing. (We will also have a four day rule possible trend change) I think there's a very high probability that Thursday marked the bottom.
Folks this is just how intermediate cycle bottoms unfold. They always make everyone believe the decline will continue for ever. They always bring out the calls for a crash. And they always bring out the trolls on this blog 🙂
The thing is they also always eventually bottom. Then the market rallies long enough to reverse sentiment back to bullish extremes. In bull markets that means new highs. In bear markets the fundamentals pull the market back down before new highs can be made.
Once I become convinced we have indeed put in the intermediate cycle low (a pretty good tell is when the bears start blaming the rally on the PPT. A sure sign they got caught short at the bottom) then the bounce out of that low will tell us whether we are back in a bear market or whether this has just been a correction in a cyclical bull.
If the market rolls over and moves below the intermediate low (which appears to be at 1014) then yes the markets are back in bear mode. If we go back up and make new highs…well that would be obvious now wouldn't it.
So the next month or two should tell us the true direction of the market.POSTED BY TOBY CONNOR AT 7:52 AM