Gold and Silver's Daily Review for 13th August 2010

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The $1,215 price held through Asia and London to be Fixed at $1,215.   Only ahead of New York's opening has it tried to rise higher.   It looks like it has won the battle of $1,200.   Is this time to pick up some good shares as well?   To find out our preferences and for our full range of weekly forecasts please subscribe through:

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After the discouraging news from the States on the economy, Germany came out with good growth figures.   Their exports are good [they can barely keep up with supplying BMW's to China.   Quality will out.   But the southern parts of Europe are not doing well at all.   Strangely the economic currents that are pulling the globe in different ways are not affecting currencies this week.   It is more than likely that the various currency 'swap' arrangements are being used to manage exchange rates.   Japan is an exception to this and is most unhappy as it foresees a 78Yen: Dollar.   This may be seen as a good time to exit the Yen and go elsewhere including to gold, for the Bank of Japan must soon be seen to bring that rate closer to 100.

Gold – Very Short-term

We look to see if the week closes at current [$1,215+] levels.   The feel is for a positive day.   If so, we have been given direction!   [Subscribe to get our detailed forecast for our present issue is about to be posted]

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Silver – Very Short-term

The silver price has barely moved since yesterday, so we may well see the 'shunt' effect again from the present level of $18.05.   What one has to ask, is will silver keep following gold if gold takes off?   London Fixed at $18.06 and did not move ahead of New York.   We do expect a positive day for silver in New York.

Gold Price Drivers

It can be so difficult when uncertainty runs amok.   Everyone grabs onto any little piece of good news.   Germany's growth figures today won't affect the gold price.   We must say that we do believe uncertainty will persist and even grow, but we do not expect any economic or currency collapse anywhere, at this stage.   Indeed, gold should do well in the economic and monetary climate we are seeing now.

The fundamental picture for gold is long-term.   Just look back over the last decade.   Gold has risen in a variety of economic climates boom as well as bust, so it is not driven by growth or lack thereof.   There are several very diverse gold price drivers, each one unaffected by the others, but making the sum total of gold price influences.   One must understand all the underlying gold price drivers to be able to see where it is going now.   [That's what we track in our newsletters]

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Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips