Gold and Silver's Daily Review for 3rd August 2010
The last day has shown us the power of London over New York, when it comes to the gold market. The London Fix, yesterday afternoon, saw a price of $1,188.The gold price then pulled back in New York's session, leaving Asia sitting at close to $1,180, before London opened.
The early morning London time saw gold wallowing at that level then slowly pick up just before the Fix, which saw a gold price of $1,184 established. This encouraged London buyers who immediately took it up to $1,187 in trading.
Most technical commentators saw a head-and-shoulders formation on the charts, but this did not lead to the expected tumble of gold, which is hanging in there around $1,180. Because gold is so much more than a commodity, with so many different types of global investors, it is always unwise to see it as solely a price-driven market. The present price performance highlights that. The complexities of gold make it the world's most interesting markets of all.
Gold – Very Short-term
Gold is defying normal trading patterns as it holds above $1,180. It is refusing to turn down leading us to believe today should be a strong day for gold, but within a larger trading range.
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Silver – Very Short-term
Silver is stronger than gold at the moment. Thanks to Mr. Butler's sharp eye, we see J.P. Morgan has been cutting short positions in silver vigorously over the last couple of weeks. It seems that the new financial regulatory law is forcing a trimming of these positions. Hence silver remains strong above $18.00 holding $18.40 at the moment after the silver Fix in London of $18.42. We think today may see an upward bias in silver.
Gold Price Drivers
Even though the rainfall in Pakistan is horrific, it is very good for agriculture in India and so we expect a very good harvest there. Gold demand out of India from the second or third week of this month should be good, despite high prices. The 'Summer Doldrums' the gold market's quiet season, is coming to an end. The impact on the gold price of the 'gold season', which starts around the third week in August is very positive. This is the period when Europe and the States return from holiday with the end year gift giving in their sights and the East sees the end of the annual harvests and the festival season take off. With the gold market primarily driven by investment demand this year, the fourth quarter of the year is always the strongest.
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Julian D.W. Phillips