How will we know?
Question: How will we know when the bear has returned?
Well, for one, the market will break back below a yearly cycle low initiating a series of lower lows and lower highs. This year that cycle low was set in February.
But didn’t the market break that low during the recent correction?
Well yes and no! The S&P and Dow did both marginally break below the February lows. However a big part of the weakness that dragged these two indexes down was due to crumbling energy stocks as the mess in the gulf unfolded.
The rest of the market held above the February lows. Some like the transports comfortably above those levels. I tend to think if the economy was ready to fall back into recession again we would be seeing a lot more weakness in the trannies.
The banking industry has also held up quite well during the recent crisis. Surprising since it was the failing European financial sector that has been blamed for the current market swoon. If the financial sector is collapsing again how come the banks are holding above the February lows?