Outlook on Gold, Oil and Emerging Markets

Frank at Tech Ticker 030910Yesterday afternoon I sat down with Aaron Task from Yahoo! Finance’s Tech Ticker to discuss my outlook for gold and oil. Despite a recent run-up in gold prices, I explained to Aaron that I am still bullish on gold.
I think there are many compelling factors both from a supply side and from the demand side that looks like gold will trade higher…The only supply coming to the market is from central banks. Supply from mines is contracting as it’s getting more difficult, more expensive to produce an ounce of gold and deliver it to the marketplace.

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Frank at Tech Ticker - Oil 030910Aaron and I also discussed how each commodity has its own DNA of volatility and investors need to be mindful of that. Specifically, we discussed price volatility for oil.
Based on historical patterns, oil could easily jump to $100 or fall twenty dollars to $60. That’d be normal volatility…It’s not just supply and demand around the world, it’s also because oil is priced in dollars and these swings in the dollar exaggerate the supply demand factors.

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Frank at Tech Ticker - EM 030910Lastly, I explained to Aaron why the rise of a middle class in emerging markets is a catalyst for a long-term shift in consumption patterns for goods and services.
What’s really significant is the rise of the middle class…What happens when you get 30 million out of 1.3 billion people making $50,000 a year? These big changes in consumption patterns take place. That’s why we’re seeing Cartier and Louis Vuitton and all these [luxury stores] opening up throughout China.

Watch the Discussion on Emerging Markets

Diversification does not protect an investor from market risks and does not assure a profit. The interview references the investment theory of an investment as insurance against a separate market event that could negatively affect performance of an investment. The reference does not guarantee performance or a safeguard from loss of principal by investing in that asset. Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole. Holdings in the Global Resources Fund, Gold & Precious Metals Fund and World Precious Minerals Fund as a percentage of net assets as of December 31, 2009: Chevron (Global Resources Fund 3.69%), Conoco-Phillips 0.00%, Exxon 0.00%, San Juan Basin Royalty Trust 0.00%, Randgold Resources (Gold and Precious Metals Fund 8.30%, World Precious Minerals Fund 8.14%, Global Resources Fund 1.92%), Royal Gold (Gold and Precious Metals Fund 3.52%, World Precious Minerals Fund 1.14%), Franco Nevada (Gold and Precious Metals Fund 0.34%, World Precious Minerals Fund 0.16%, Global Resources Fund 0.04%), LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA 0% #10-180

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