Gold Mining News

Changing as Markets Change

I had the chance to listen to a prominent MIT finance professor talk about how market participants make their decisions, and I came away thinking that his big-brain ideas validate the approach that we’ve been using for years. Andrew Lo, the MIT professor, has developed what he calls the “adaptive markets hypothesis” (AMH) as a more sophisticated framework than the long-standing “efficient markets hypothesis” (EMH). I won’t go into a lot of detail, but the EMH assumes that all market participants act rationally at all times, and that all available information is immediately reflected in market prices. In Lo’s AMH, market participants are not always perfectly rational, he says – they often make bad decisions. They learn from those bad decisions and, driven by competition, the survivors constantly innovate. Those who don’t adapt don’t last. At U.S. Global, we have long viewed markets as “complex adaptive systems”—they are made up of many moving parts that are interconnected across a global network, and they learn from experiences and change accordingly. In our case, we use a matrix of top-down macro models and bottom-up micro stock selection models to determine weighting in countries, sectors and individual securities. We believe government policies are a precursor to change, and as a result, we keep tabs on the fiscal and monetary policies of the G-7 and what we call the “E-7” -- the world’s developing nations by population. We also focus on historical and socioeconomic cycles, and we apply both statistical and fundamental models to identify companies with superior growth and value metrics. We overlay these explicit knowledge models with the tacit knowledge obtained by domestic and global travel for first-hand observation of local and geopolitical conditions, as well as specific companies and projects. During his San Antonio visit, Lo contrasted “fear and greed” with “rational thinking” – the former being reactive and emotional, while the latter is measured and opportunistic. We use oscillators, like the one above showing gold and the dollar, to help us determine when fear or greed may be taking hold in a market. I’m a big believer in globalization, urbanization and major technological breakthroughs as key drivers of change in the world. These factors have an enormous impact on infrastructure creation around the world, which in turn greatly affects commodities demand. Back in the early 1970s, when gold resumed free-trading status in the U.S., China and India were both inward-looking and had very small economic footprints – now their economic engines are lifting tens of millions of people into middle-class prosperity each year. “I'd be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient,” Warren Buffett once said. In other words, opportunities come to those (like us) who are able to navigate increasingly complex markets.   Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility.

Jim Rogers: British Pound Could Collapse Within Weeks

Gold didn't do much of anything in either Far East or early London trading… and was pretty much unchanged from it's Thursday close by the time New York opened for business yesterday morning. From that […]

China: Did They… or Didn't They?

Gold's Far East high yesterday was around $1,101 spot shortly before Hong Kong opened.  Then a dollar 'rally' materialized that dropped the gold price down to the $1,090 level… and it kept bouncing off that low right up […]

Gold and Silver

See it big, and keep it simple. Wilferd A. Peterson From high to Low Silver has dropped over 24%. From high to low Gold has so far shed only roughly 12%.  Silver also did not […]

Global Gold Supply

Last week the World Gold Council (WGC) released its highly-anticipated Gold Demand Trends (GDT) report for Q4 and full-year 2009. GDT reports contain analysis of independent data compiled by GFMS Limited detailing supply and demand […]

Greek Deputy Prime Minister Attacks 'Nazi Germany'

When I signed off on my report yesterday morning around 6:00 a.m. Eastern time, gold had just fallen out of bed to the tune of $13… and I was concerned that things would only get […]

Gold miners agree to pay up to $100mn in taxes to Nevada

Nevada legislators say the state’s mining industry has agreed to pay up to $100 million in taxes and fees to the state.

Gold: Long-Term Fundamentals Remain Promising

Source: Jeffrey Nichols, NicholsOnGold.com/The Gold Report 2/24/10 http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/5701 "Gold's positive fundamentals, the high level of investor interest in key geographic markets and global monetary economic developments promise to push the yellow metal much higher," according […]

Centerra reports 7.3mn ozs of gold reserves, Kumtor mine life extended

But, the group says its Boroo mine in Mongolia is nearing the end of its mine life and is expected to cease mining by year-end

Teck positioned for growth in 2010

By Kevin Barker | # 022210 | Last year I said Teck Resources (TCK.NYSE, TSX) would get bigger or smaller, owing to its spectacular debt load. Actually, it did neither. Oh sure the company shed […]

The Dollar & Gold – What's Next?

Last week was strong with stocks and commodities moving up sharply. As nice as it was to see a rally, I still have my doubts whether this move has legs behind it. As prices moved […]

The Dollar & Gold – What's Next?

Last week was strong with stocks and commodities moving up sharply. As nice as it was to see a rally, I still have my doubts whether this move has legs behind it. As prices moved […]

Farewell To All The Emperors

Well, the rally that began at gold's low on Thursday morning at 4:00 p.m. in Hong Kong's afternoon trading session, had a few legs… and gold was up about $10 or so by 8:30 a.m. in New York.  Shortly […]

John Lee's Stock Chart of the Week

Apogee Minerals Ltd.. [TSX-V: APE] Website: http://www.apogeeminerals.com/ Recent Price: $0.105 Shares Outstanding: 110.4 million Market Capitalization: $11.6 million 52 Week Range: $0.04 – $0.17 Data Collected on: Thursday February 18, 2010 Going APE One Last […]

New Gold Inc growing at the speed of light

New Gold Inc. is looking good these days (NGD.TSX,AMEX)… The company has been around forever, but it’s present day structure stems from a more recent three-way merger with Peak Gold and Metallica Resources. Today it has […]

Investors should seek out companies with prospective porphyry projects

Greetings investors! Goldbugs have long proclaimed that the world is running out of vast, easily-mined gold discoveries. That's not new. But you have to wonder, when average investors begin openly questioning how the big producers […]

Clive Maund: Unlock Profits with Technical Analysis

Source: Interviewed by Karen Roche, Publisher, The Gold Report 2/17/2010 http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/5644 Which camp are you in, inflation or deflation? While Mr. Market labors under the pressures of both and the burgeoning weight of artificial stimuli, […]

Argentine Judge halts work at Yamana mine after violence erupts during protests

Protests by anti-mining activists at the Canadian gold diggers Acua Rica project in Argentina's Catamarca province turned ugly Wednesday and a ruling was made to suspend work done locally

Musselwhite – first Canadian mine to win International Cyanide Code certification

Goldcorp’s Musselwhite mine in northwest Ontario has become the first gold mining operation in Canada to be fully certified under the International Cyanide Management Code for the Manufacture, Transport and Use of Cyanide in the Production of Gold. Musselwhite is an underground mine that produces some 250,000 oz/y of gold.

Soros Doubles Gold ETF Holding in Q4/09

Well, for the first hour of trading in Sydney on Tuesday morning, it sure didn't look like much was going to happen… but that didn't last long.  Shortly before the Hong Kong open, a buyer showed […]

GOLD UP-DATE

As the currency crisis continues in the European Union, gold trades sideways with an upward bias. Even though the development in the European Union's (EU), to help Greece's solve its fiscal problem remained the center […]

China and India – the Asian gold-buying phenomenon

The ever growing purchasing power of the Chinese and Indian general populations throws bearish fundamental analyses of the gold market into disarray.

Will Baluchistan Province expropriate Antofagasta/Barrick Reko Diq project?

Critics say the highly prospective Reko Diq copper-gold project should revert to full state-ownership to help Pakistan repay its $51 billion foreign debt, and put Pakistan's largest province on a sound financial footing.

Deep drill gold project underway in Victorian goldfields

Victoria has not had a gold mining heyday since it helped populate Australia and dominated national gold production from the mid 1800s until the early 1900s. But now, with the help of a GBM Resources and the Victorian government, that could all be changing.

Caution Reigns

From the February 2010 HRA Journal David Coffin & Eric Coffin, HRA Advisories The January market dip was focused on profits taking. Good results in various sectors brought selling, but not sell-offs.  It is evidence […]