Iron ore prices fell on Monday to six-month lows of $130/tonne as Chinese steelmakers demand cargo deferrals or simply default on shipments.
“There is a new level of prices for iron ore globally,” Tito Martins, Vale CFO tells analysts in a conference call Friday.
While China's steel output is hitting a record rate of over 2 million tonnes per day stockpiles of iron ore are growing at a clip of 1 million tonnes per week at the country's ports.
The price is up more than 27% from lows struck in October last year when the steelmaking ingredient experienced a mini crash.
Using the dismal science to make forecasts and taking risks with real money are two very different things. And the Brazilian giant is definitely putting its money where its mouth is.
Fortescue chief executive Neville Power also told The Australian newspaper that Chinese steel production growth will be lower over the next five years at about 4% – 5%, from 7% – 8% now.
Hope for the beleaguered iron ore sector has come in the form of higher prices and signs that steel demand is picking up in China, Reuters reports.
The big three – BHP, Vale and Rio Tinto – control nearly 70% of the 1 billion tonne annual iron ore seaborne trade and even the combined mining and trading capabilities of a Glenstrata may not be enough of an advantage over the incumbents.
Should the supermajors join the new platform it would mark the latest shift in the global iron ore business which has been completely transformed in less than a decade.
Although some Asian firms have found creative ways of doing business with Iran, European iron ore traders and shipping companies are shying away completely from transacting with the country as US-led sanctions start to have an impact.
Down from 100 million tonnes in 2010, India's minerals industry federation forecasts only 40 million tonnes will be shipped over the next 12 months.
After staging an impressive comeback from October's lows, the rally in iron ore prices seems to have run out of steam.
On the last day of Roundup, Vancouver's mining showcase, Sandy Chim CEO of Canada's Century Iron Mines, flashed a few slides about China, India and the iron ore market that would make gold bugs green with envy.
The market for iron ore is likely to soften this year but industry leaders Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are not pulling in production, betting that the slowdown in steelmaking is temporary.
Reuters reports spot iron ore was trading close to seven-week highs after a cyclone closed down the world's largest export terminal in Australia and heavy rains in three Brazilian states halted Vale's shipments.
Brazillian firm Vale's (NYSE: VALE) Chinamax vessel started unloading its first iron ore in China on Wednesday after months of uncertainty on accessing its largest market's ports, news service Exame reported.
Pressured by Asian and European steelmakers not wanting to be locked into expensive iron ore contracts, Vale SA has bent to a new system that would see lower quarterly prices.
Interfax-China reports that about half of China iron ore miners – mainly small and medium-sized firms – have suspended production in the face of dwindling profit margins.
Tom Albanese says "assumptions that the floor price would not go much below $120 a tonne might be valid next year but not long beyond that."
The Chinese General Administration of Customs reported that the country's iron ore and concentrates imports were 49.94 million tonnes in October, down 17.5% from 60.57 million tonnes in September 2011.
The spot price for iron ore arriving at China’s Tianjin port increased to $134.40 a tonne last week from $116.90, the lowest in almost two years, on Oct. 28. Most analysts believe do not expect prices to return to the historic highs above $180 seen just two months ago thanks to the volume-driven market strategy of the big three producers and China's plans to increase its domestic supply by 40% over the next four years and up its investment in mines abroad.
Iron ore prices have turned around after crashing 30% in October, but longer term the outlook is not rosy for smaller players thanks in large part to the aggressive go-to-market strategy of the big three.
Bloomberg reports Rio de Janeiro-based Vale SA, the world’s largest iron-ore producer, said prices for the raw material have stabilized and are recovering from “rock bottom” levels as a result of lower-than-expected production and strong demand from China, India and South America.
Iron ore for immediate delivery has gained 8% to $126.30 a tonne since reaching its lowest level in almost two years at the end of October. During the month iron ore prices crashed almost 30% forcing the big three – BHP, Vale and Rio Tinto control nearly 70% of the 1 billion tonne annual iron ore seaborne trade – to renegotiate quarterly contracts with Chinese buyers to bring values more in line with the spot price.
The world's number one iron ore producer Vale is considering shifting from iron ore pricing based on the previous quarter’s prices to levels more aligned with the spot price the company's chief executive said on Tuesday.
The Brazilian company's new willingness comes after more Chinese steel mills seek to postpone shipments or default on contracts as spot iron ore prices drop from historic highs above $170 to levels of around $150. BHP, Vale and Rio Tinto control nearly 70% of the 1 billion tonne annual iron ore seaborne trade and dominate price talks which in the past were characterized by secretive negotiations and annual contracts. Just last week global number one miner BHP Billiton announced plans to create a new, more transparent system for pricing iron ore called Global Ore by the end of the year or early next year.
Fox Business reports global number one miner BHP Billiton plans to create a new, more transparent system for pricing iron ore called Global Ore by the end of the year or early next year, the chief executive of the company's Ferrous and Coal division said Thursday.
BHP, Vale and Rio Tinto control nearly 70% of the 1 billion tonne annual iron ore seaborne trade and dominate price talks. The pricing of iron ore which have shifted from secretive negotiations and annual contracts over the last couple of years to prices linked to the spot market constitutes a “true revolution” say analysts. Firm demand from China's construction sector and a drop off in India's exports have been behind the strength in spot iron ore prices which, at above $170 a tonne, have trebled from late 2008. In August results for BHP Billiton showed its iron ore division accounted for the bulk of its record $22 billion in profits.
John Garnaut identifies a disturbing trend for iron ore exporters, with Chinese steel prices falling and iron ore prices expected to follow, he writes in the Sydney Morning Herald.
Garnaut quotes Chinese analysts saying that capacity utilization is declining because steel demand and prices are falling, while the prices for raw materials used in steelmaking — namely coal and iron ore — remain high.
The steel and iron ore markets were bracing for "volatility on a declining trend", said Yin Jimei, an analyst at Iron & Steel Information Website in Tangshan.
Xu Xiangchun, at Mysteel in Shanghai, said market anxieties over the global economy have coincided with softening domestic demand including a decline in railway construction due to a series of scandals in the Ministry of Railways.
Speaking to reporters at an industry conference in Qingdao China, the world's largest iron ore miners said on Wednesday they have seen no weakness in demand from China. Forecasts for China's imports by 2015 now top 1 billion tonnes – up more than 60% from 2010 – due to the relatively high cost and the low quality of its domestic supplies.
Firm demand from China's construction sector and a drop off in India's exports have been behind the strength in spot iron ore prices which, at above $170 a tonne, have trebled from late 2008. The big three – BHP, Vale and Rio Tinto – control nearly 70% of the annual iron ore seaborne trade and dominate price talks.
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