The Longwave Economic and Financial Cycle Winter Warning

“It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”
Yogi Berra, New York Yankee – Hall of Famer
Everyone of any importance is telling you that ‘it is over;’ ‘It’ being the “Great Recession.” A recent headline in The Financial Times read, “Upbeat Signals on the Economy.”

The story began, “The Chairman of the US Federal Reserve and the head of one of the country’s biggest banks struck a bullish tone on the economy yesterday, hailing stronger spending by businesses and consumers as a harbinger of domestic recovery.”

“Using similar language in separate venues, Ben Bernanke and Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s chief executive, played down fears of a return to sluggish growth and reinforced investors’ optimism on the resilience of the US economy.” In the Financial Times, Thursday, April 15, 2010, Mr. Dimon was quoted in the same article that, “he harboured hopes of a strong recovery.”

In an April 2, 2010 interview with Bloomberg TV, Tim Geithner, Treasury Secretary said that “the economy is definitely getting stronger.” In like vein, Larry Summers, the White House economic advisor and director of President Obama’s National Economic Council, said in an interview on ABC’s ‘This Week’ programme on April 4, 2010: “Now that the process of job creation has started, we expect it will accelerate.”

Meanwhile, the principal creator of the debt bubble, Alan Greenspan on the same ABC programme said: “There’s a momentum building up which is really just the beginning, and it’s got away to go. Spending on equipment is coming back in a fairly substantial way and there’s a shortage of inventories out there and we’re on the edge of significant build-up.” A Bloomberg Business Week article on April 25, 2010 states, if he couldn’t see a bubble how can he see a recovery?

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