Much ado about nothing
It’s been a great break from working nearly 7 days a week down to 5 1/2 or so. But I’m back!
I’ve gotten so many emails from the retail investor all the way up to large institutions and even some within the largest entities who control our money flow to a large degree paying me great compliment and wishing I’d return.
I can’t thank you all personally but I do thank you all very much. It's a great honour to write for you and have such an influential and appreciative audience.
I’ve been still writing on a daily basis for subscribers as always so if you really can’t get enough of me then consider subscribing. Writing daily updates is my real focus and passion.
So what’s changed? Not much from what I can see.
The middle east is set to explode much more-so than before but markets are largely shrugging off that news so far. Europe still reels in debt and bailout talk and actions while the US continues on it’s path of overspending with no budget. Elections are fast approaching in the US and I’m trying to avoid the noise as much as possible….who’s running again?
The simple facts remain. QE/money printing is rampant and getting worse by the month.
I still have a hard time believing Ben Bernanke can say he’s going to print money and buy bonds for an unlimited amount of time and in an unlimited amount without much resistance from anyone.
It’s like sailing through the fog at full speed with no plan and nobody at the helm. Everyone is drunk below and having a gay old time but soon they will find their tank empty ie. currency worthless, and in the middle of nowhere with no power to power even their radios for help.
Trouble is a brewing still and I still advocate holding a hefty portion of your wealth in physical gold and silver. That is what I’ve done and I sleep very well, too well on occasion, and with the a respectable portions of my wealth I focus on my true passion, trading. It’s so much fun and such an incredibly challenging experience that teaches you on a daily basis and I have no problem doing it full out because I know I’ve got my safety blanket of gold and silver when it hits the fan.
There will be other ways to avoid the coming currency devaluation which is accelerating with my trading cash but we are still years from that in my view. That means the precious metals still have years to run in their secular bull markets. Let’s take a nice look at the precious metal charts now and see how they are shaping up as we move closer to elections. Keep in mind that the metals may be held in check more and more to give the illusion that everything is still fine so regardless of how their charts looks, they can still maneuvered in contrary fashion.
Gold rose only 0.59% this past week but remains near a breakout. The rising trend-line is here now and should push gold higher. A move above $1,800 could be bought on a trading basis but very tight and automated stops must be used as they can reverse this in the blink of an eye leaving you with more substantial losses than planned for.
All in all the last few weeks of consolidation have been just what gold needed after such a large and rapid rise from mid August to early September. I think we’re near ready to move here but as I said, if you’re trading it, be very careful with stops. If you’re looking to accumulate the physical, use pullbacks or consolidation periods such as we’re in now but the reality is that gold gave us a much better chance to accumulate the physical from May all the way through August.
It was an easy time to load up for those who were looking to and many did.
Silver moved higher by 0.14% this past week and is also nearing a breaking point. Chances are it will move higher as these little triangles are generally continuation patterns of a trend, which is higher. A move above $35.20 or so could be bought on a trading basis but it’s even more important to have hard stops set with silver than gold as it can move lower by twice as much in a shorter amount of time on a percentage basis. To buy silver under $27 was a real gift to those who took advantage and likely the last chance you’ll get to accumulate under the $30 level.
But, all is far from lost as silver will follow gold and rise many multiples of it’s current price in terms of fiat dollars which remain in evaporation mode around the world.
Platinum rose 3% this past week and has a very exciting chart as of late. It’s been wild and volatile which is great for trading and the moves have been quite textbook and predictable.
Now we’re back at recent highs and looking for higher but expect a little more consolidation first here. A new breakout above $1,725 could be bought but the move, as with all breakouts, must be accompanied with a surge in volume.
I’ve marked all recent breakouts on the chart and you can clearly see the volume needed to confirm a breakout and push the price higher.
It’s not rocket science, but it’s still not always easy to trade, especially when your emotions are involved and you “want” something to happen.
Simply reacting to moves and prices is key, but we are all emotional beings and they do take over sometimes no matter how skilled we are.
Palladium rose a solid $4.16% this past week and seems now to be consolidating between the $680 and $660 level. A few more days in this range could setup for another power higher as we’ve seen it do a few times in recent weeks.
One dominant news piece lately that has the US, Japan, Taiwan and China up in arms is the disputed islands known as Senkaku. During my living time in the hidden jewel of Taiwan I had to make periodic visa runs so I could remain in the country working. Some of the best times were flying to Bangkok for a weekend and returning late Sunday with little or no sleep. Ah the stories and the times, but that is for another time and another forum.
On one such visa run I decided to take a weekend cruise to international water and to these Senkaku islands which at that time Taiwan said was Japanese ground.
All this time I’d thought I’d been to Japan! Now the sovereignty is in question. When we arrived at the islands I groggily awoke on a deck chair after a full night at blackjack table which worked out well and paid for my trip and enjoyed the sight as we just cruised by the islands before heading back to the port of Keelung which has one of the best night markets in all of Taiwan.
The point is that until someone cared, nobody cared. I know there are great fishing grounds there apparently and potential for oil but this issue seems to crop up once in a while only to see no resolution is found. I guess the islands should belong to whom they most closely reside, or perhaps the one who has a permanent population residing there. It wouldn’t be hard to round up some villagers and drop them off there and say, live!
After all, if Canada can do the same to a group and drop them off in the stunning town of Grise Fjord which I had the pleasure to visit last year, then a group would have no trouble surviving in the climate there. Grise Fjord is one of the coldest and most inhospitable place on this earth and the most northerly town in Canada, the same would ring true if Taiwan did it, but the climate is far different.
There is going to be a lot to bring your way in the coming weeks and months but I’ll leave it here for this first foray back into writing my weekend letters. When I decided to take a break from writing these weekend letters I found I was quite redundant and I don’t want to get into that rut again.
I may not write every week if life gets in the way or there isn’t much to talk about. I do enjoy sending out charts weekly and they always change and I thank you for your kind words about missing them but subscribers get them on a daily basis and much more. While there are many small items that occur weekly, we are still spiralling down in a debt crisis which is being resolved by printing money and ultimately this is going to result in the worlds fiat currencies being destroyed as has happened countless times throughout history.
There isn’t much I can do about it except prepare my life for it and try and spread the word but ultimately it’s up to you.
Happy Columbus Day to those of you in the states and for those in Canada Happy Thanksgiving, enjoy your turkey! Thanks for reading.
I’ll be writing much more often now so please stay tuned. Warren Bevan.
Warren Bevan writes for http://www.preciousmetalstockreview.com/. To subscribe, email to [email protected] with “subscribe” as the subject and receive the newsletter directly in your inbox, links and all.
Image Laura Hope Crews and John Drew in "Much Ado About Nothing" [between ca. 1910 and ca. 1915]