Yes, now about those gold prices…
I haven't been buying gold, even though I know I should.
Yes, yes I know how bullish all the boys are: Casey and the whole happy gang at Agora, and Raulston and Schaeffer, and Lundin and Kaiser, everyone.
It's just that, well it's like this see — shares of the juniors have trailed gold prices for so long that the market has gotten used to it, as in, "..ho hum, another day, another all time high for gold and another teeny tiny move in share prices." The market loves continuity and especially consistency. It has grown used to undervalued gold explorers. The market is actually happier with what can be relied upon, and what the market wants, the market gets.
Also, we all need something to look forward to. For years I've been part of the chorus predicting the mother of all rallys among the juniors. But if and when it actually happens — well, then we'll have to find something else to look forward to. Oh poo. Am I making sense?
The other reason for not holding gold is entirely practical. I don't want to tie up my capital 'holding' a bunch of stocks that are just going to lurch around for the foreseeable future. Yes, you should always get involved early, but that's good advice for buy and hold types and I was never very good at sitting on my hands.
However, having said all that I believe now is the time to get involved. But don't buy the majors, the Barricks or the Newmonts. The easy money's been made on those, and they're all such cheapskates anyway. Honestly, their dividends aren't worth diddly squat. And where in blazes are the stock splits? Gold miners are the cheapest bunch of so and so's I've ever seen. Even the financials are paying better these days! Why just the other day I found a $25 stock, (whoops, it's $28 now!) involved in government backed mortgages no less and what looks like a family business to boot, that paid a divvy faithfully every quarter least year amounting to 10% of its stock price. That's $2.50 a throw, per share. And it trades at book value! Check out Arlington Asset Management, symbol AI.NYSE.
Anyway don't get me started. Big precious metals producers. Avoid them. Buy the juniors under $0.80 with lots of minerals in the ground and plenty of upside. They'll take you home in the next 18 months, believe me.
I'm actually more bullish on base metals and energy these days, and particularly non conventional oil and gas plays and coal. I will have some precious metals picks in the coming weeks, but not many; basically just those I know will hit a home run. Unlike the other guys who pick the whole herd and average out their 'returns' at the end of the year, I just pick the home runs.
Why not pick just the stocks that are going to triple? Why bother with the rest? I don't get it…
Careful out there.