Gold gains as traders mull next Trump moves after tariff ruling

Gold advanced as the dollar slid, with investors weighing the White House’s next steps on tariffs after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs. 

The Supreme Court said Trump exceeded his authority by invoking a federal emergency powers law to impose his “reciprocal” tariffs across the globe as well as targeted import taxes. The ruling invalidates a large portion of the tariffs that Trump has rolled out in his second term. The ruling implied that the US Treasury may need to refund levies paid by importers and reduce future revenues, according to Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy.

“This should stress the budget, increasing speculation that monetary tools may need to be used to fund government, he said. “This is accretive for gold” as the possible measures will likely keep rates low. Bullion typically performs well in a low rate environment as it doesn’t pay interest.

The dollar fell as much as 0.3%, lifting gold as much as 1.6% as the precious metal is priced in the greenback.

“The market is recognizing that this is going to be a very messy legal battle for years,” said Ben McMillan of IDX Advisors, noting that the Supreme Court decision didn’t specify details around tariff refunds. “They’re pushing all of that to the lower courts. What that means is it’s gonna be a lot of individual lawsuits.”

Trump said in a Friday press conference that alternatives will be used to replace rejected tariffs. While the US Constitution gives Congress the power to levy taxes and duties, lawmakers have delegated some authority to the executive branch through a number of statutes.

Trump said he would impose a 10% global tariff under Section 122, over and above tariffs already being charged. He declared all national security tariffs under Section 232 and existing Section 301 tariffs to be in full force and effect.

Bullion wavered earlier Friday after Russia said its central bank sold gold from its reserves in January, the first decrease in since October. Central bank buying has played a crucial role in gold’s rally for the past three years, providing a strong floor to prices. With 300,000 ounces of bullion now available in the open market, it raised concerns that gold may face some near-term weakness on top of heightened volatility following a historic price plunge at the end of January.

Still the factors that underpinned gold’s earlier advance to above $5,500 an ounce remain largely intact, including a wider move away from sovereign bonds and currencies, as well as geopolitical risks. The latest US moves on Iran are adding to global uncertainties, increasing the appeal for haven assets such as gold.

The US military is stationing a vast array of forces in the Middle East, with Trump saying that Iran had 10 to 15 days at most to strike a deal over its nuclear program. A major US strike against the Islamic Republic, where leaders are anxious about regime stability after widespread unrest, would risk entangling Washington in a third war of choice in the region since 1991.

Banks including BNP Paribas SA and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have said they expect prices to resume their upward trend. Central banks, a major driver of gold’s rally, remain keen to build up holdings as a hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note. That’s despite elevated volatility that weighed on buying in December.

Spot gold gained 1.5% to $5,072.48 an ounce at 2:20 p.m. in New York. In other metals, silver added 5.6%, while platinum and palladium both advanced. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, fell 0.2%

(By Yvonne Yue Li and Preeti Soni)