Gold needs to break past $1,303 to really resume recovery — Goldman

Gold prices need to climb past the $1,303-an-ounce level before anyone can say the precious metal has resumed its recovery from the multi-year lows they hit in December, Goldman Sachs’ experts warn.

The US bank’s analysts, who normally hold a bearish outlook on the yellow metal, said Tuesday in a report quoted by Kitco that while the price decline over the past month has been in line with their outlook, there could be a case for purchases if the sell-off deepens.

Gold prices have dropped sharply over the past month, from $1,350 an ounce to $1,241.20 last week, its lowest since early June, as speculators cut bets on higher prices.

In other words, they see the price retreat as good chance to get the metal for cheap. “We would view a gold sell-off substantially below $1,250 as a strategic buying opportunity, given substantial downside risks to global growth remain, and given that the market is likely to remain concerned about the ability of monetary policy to respond to any potential shocks to growth,” they had written in a previous report, published last week.

Bullion prices have dropped sharply over the past month, from $1,350 an ounce to $1,241.20 last week, its lowest since early June, as speculators cut bets on higher prices.

In June, Goldman revised its three-, six- and 12-month targets up by $100, forecasting prices at $1,300, $1,280, $1,250 over those periods. But the risks to the bank’s year-end forecast of $1,280 may now be skewed to the downside, it said in the report quoted by Kitco.

Expectations for a December interest rate increase have heightened in recent days. Higher interest rates are bad news for non-yielding gold, as this boosts the allure of alternative, income-paying assets. It also tends to help the dollar, against which gold is held as a hedge.

Minutes from the September meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be released later in the day on Wednesday, which could affirm expectations on the timing of a rate hike before the end of the year.