Bank of America projects copper price to surge past $11,000 in 2026

Bank of America (BofA) has raised its copper price forecasts, pointing to widespread mine disruptions and steady demand for the metal across global markets.

The bank now expects copper to average $11,313 per tonne in 2026, an 11% upgrade from its prior estimate, then rising to $13,501 in 2027, for a 12.5% increase.

At its peak, copper prices could reach $15,000 per tonne, its strategists added.

Supply squeeze deepens

BofA analysts flagged ongoing setbacks at some of the world’s largest mines, notably Grasberg in Indonesia, El Teniente in Chile and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as catalysts for rising copper prices.

Additional pressure may stem from delays at Teck’s Quebrada Blanca II project in Chile and the indefinite suspension of First Quantum’s Cobre Panamá, they wrote.

At the same time, treatment and refining charges have fallen sharply, underscoring the shortage of raw material. While overcapacity in China’s smelting sector has weighed on processing margins, the bank’s analysts stressed the underlying issue is insufficient mine supply.

Resilient demand

Alongside the supply headwinds, demand for the metal has remained robust, the bank continued. Copper consumption in China continues to be underpinned by rising grid investments tied to renewable energy and AI-related infrastructure. In Europe, demand is showing early signs of recovery after a prolonged slump.

On the inventory front, stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange remain exceptionally low, raising the risk of short squeezes if consumption accelerates further.

BofA expects copper to enter a structural bull phase. The bank emphasized that spare tonnages have already been diverted to the US, leaving the market vulnerable to sharp price spikes.

On Monday morning, three-month copper futures traded at $10,643 per tonne ($4.84 per lb.) on the CME, up 1.4% on the day.