Copper price won’t stay above $11,000 for long, says Goldman

Defying market optimism, Goldman Sachs Group sought to curb enthusiasm over copper’s record-breaking rally, saying the metal’s breakout above $11,000 a tonne is unlikely to last as global supplies remain adequate.

In a note to clients this week, Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham argued that copper’s recent rally centres around “expectation of future market tightness, rather than current fundamentals,” adding that they do not expect prices at current levels to hold.

Albert Mackenzie, copper analyst at Benchmark Minerals, shared a similar view. “When you see an all-time high being broken, it tends to pull back or slow down,” he said in an interview with MINING.COM. Lately, however, “it just keeps on going up and up,” Mackenzie noted, pointing to several consecutive months of record-setting sessions.

The tamed expectations come at a time when copper had just set a new record high of $11,540 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, fueled by fears of a global supply squeeze as the metal continues to be shipped into the US ahead of potential tariffs.

Those concerns were heightened last week after trading house Mercuria Energy Group warned of the “extreme” dislocations in the current market.

“There’s growing recognition that ongoing US-bound flows could fuel shortages in China and other markets, even in a weakening demand environment,” Kostas Bintas, Mercuria’s head of metals, said during an industry event held in Shanghai last month.

“Demand is not good, there is a surplus — and the price going higher. There is a special dynamic,” he said, even predicting that non-US markets could even “be left without copper cathodes”.

Dispelling shortage concerns

Goldman’s analysts, however, have a different take. While they acknowledged the supply drain that is taking place, resulting in a higher copper price forecast for the first half of next year, the “critically low” inventories outside America could be avoided via higher regional premiums and tighter LME spreads.

“While our much smaller 2026 surplus of 160,000 tons moves the market closer to balanced, it means that we do not expect the global copper market to enter a shortage any time soon,” they wrote, adding that prices will be “constricted” in a range between $10,000-$11,000 a ton next year.

Copper has a long history of lofty predictions that have failed to materialize. And although disruptions at major mines through 2025 have tightened supply, growth in global demand has softened in recent months despite continued strength from sectors such as clean energy.

Looking ahead, Goldman said it does not see a global copper shortage until at least 2029, as demand is still forecast to be about half a million short of supply this year. A key factor, the bank noted, is the pivotal Chinese market, where consumption could slump by nearly 8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.

Benchmark’s Mackenzie also casts doubt on the sustainability of a copper rally built on supply tightness. “I don’t necessarily know whether the narrative is entirely correct,” he said, suggesting that today’s fundamentals may not justify the exuberance driving the rally.