Aluminium, Macquarie Commodities Research asks: can it be all bad?

In China, the NDRC has announced a RMB0.028/kWh ($0.04/kWh) power tariff rise for non-residential use. The rise in power costs for the Chinese aluminium smelters that buy power from the grid (accounting for ~45% of Chinese production) highlights the main bullish argument for aluminium prices over the medium term – the outlook for rising costs (particularly energy). While the supply/demand fundamentals for aluminium are clearly weak, rising demand and costs look set to support prices over the medium term. (more…)