Glencore copper output drops 11% as Rio takeover deadline looms

Glencore’s (LON: GLEN) copper production fell 11% in 2025, hitting the low end of guidance as weaker ore grades and operational constraints weighed on output, amid intensified investor attention on a potential takeover by larger rival Rio Tinto (ASX, LON: RIO).

The Swiss miner and commodities trader produced 851,600 tonnes of copper, within its forecast range of 850,000 to 875,000 tonnes, after output rebounded in the final quarter. Copper production rose 12% quarter over quarter to 268,000 tonnes in the three months to December, in line with BMO Capital Markets estimates, analyst Alexander Pearce.

Zinc and nickel output also broadly met expectations, while metallurgical coal production came in 6% below BMO’s target and thermal coal beat forecasts by 7%.

For 2026, Glencore expects copper output of between 810,000 and 870,000 tonnes, broadly in line with its December outlook, reflecting lower grades and water constraints at the Collahuasi mine in Chile, which it co-owns with Anglo American (LON: AAL). The midpoint of that range marks a decline from a previous forecast of 930,000 tonnes.

The company left most of its 2026 production targets unchanged, but withdrew cobalt guidance because of uncertainty around export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Copper prices have reached record levels as traders anticipate tightening supply driven by the global push toward lower-carbon energy, artificial intelligence and defence spending. Glencore has said it aims to lift annual copper production to about 1.6 million tonnes by 2035 through a mix of new and restarted mines, though that long-term strategy could change if merger talks advance.

Copper prize

Markets are increasingly focused on the prospect of an all-share takeover offer from Rio Tinto, which is expected by February 5 and would create the world’s largest miner, valued at more than $200 billion. 

Investors see copper as the central rationale for any deal, given the metal’s growing importance to future-facing industries and its rising share of miners’ earnings.

RBC Capital Markets said Rio’s primary motivation would be to fold Glencore’s copper assets into its own portfolio. In a recent note, RBC mining analyst Ben Davis wrote that a merger once dismissed as unrealistic has gained momentum after a strong copper rally, mounting concerns over resource scarcity and improving prospects in Argentina. 

Davis described Glencore’s copper portfolio as the “real prize,” highlighting its 44% stake in the Collahuasi mine as a crown jewel.

While the analyst said Rio has executed well at major projects such as Oyu Tolgoi and Simandou, he argued that growth beyond those assets appears less compelling, with other copper projects either too small, still under development or tied up in legal challenges, including Resolution in the US and Nuevo Cobre in Chile.

Copper’s rising influence is reshaping the mining sector’s earnings mix. Once known as “Dr. Copper” for its role as an economic bellwether, the metal is now being recast as the industry’s dominant profit driver, with Bloomberg Intelligence forecasting copper will account for more than 35% of diversified miners’ Ebitda in 2026, up from about 21% eight years earlier, largely due to higher prices rather than rising volumes.