Lundin shares slip on weaker 2026 copper, gold guidance

Canada’s Lundin Mining (TSX: LUN) shares fell more than 10% on Thursday after cutting guidance for copper and gold production on lower underground mining rates at its Candelaria operation in Chile.

The miner said it expects to produce 310,000-335,000 tonnes of copper and 134,000-149,000 ounces of gold this year, down from previous guidance of 320,000-348,000 tonnes of copper and 144,000-159,000 ounces of gold.

Lundin said fourth-quarter production exceeded 87,000 tonnes of copper and more than 34,000 ounces of gold, capping a year in which consolidated copper output surpassed original guidance and landed within the company’s revised full-year range.

Its Caserones mine in Chile was a standout, producing more than 15,000 tonnes of copper in December, its best monthly result since Lundin took ownership in 2023, and finishing the year at 132,881 tonnes, above initial expectations.

CEO Jack Lundin said the company’s near and medium-term outlook remains intact, with mine sequencing changes expected to lift copper production by a net 15,000 tonnes across 2026 and 2027. Those changes are forecast to add about 20,000 tonnes in 2027, partly offset by a 5,000-tonne midpoint adjustment in 2026.

Candelaria, also in Chile, produced 145,471 tonnes of copper in 2025, supported by higher mill throughput linked to softer ore. Across its three Latin American operations, the company said operating performance remained strong throughout the year.

Top-ten ambitions

For 2026, Lundin expects consolidated copper production of 310,000 to 335,000 tonnes and gold output of 134,000 to 149,000 ounces, with cash costs between $1.90 and $2.10 per pound. Copper production is forecast to rise to 315,000 to 340,000 tonnes in 2027 before easing to 290,000 to 315,000 tonnes in 2028.

Capital spending will remain elevated as Lundin pushes growth projects forward. Sustaining capital expenditures are projected at $550 million in 2026, while expansionary capital spending is expected to reach $445 million. Exploration spending is forecast at $53 million, focused mainly on in-mine and near-mine targets.

Lundin aims to become one of the world’s top 10 copper producers, targeting annual production of about 500,000 tonnes of copper and roughly 550,000 ounces of gold within two to four years.

The plan centres on brownfield expansions at Candelaria and Caserones in Chile and Chapada in Brazil, alongside new developments in the Vicuña district on the Chile–Argentina border, including the Josemaría and Filo del Sol projects.

Lundin stock was trading 10.77% lower at C$32.72 by noon in Toronto, leaving the company with a market capitalization of about C$28 billion ($20 billion).