Rare earth trade talks top mining trends: Wood Mac

The shift of rare earth elements to the centre of global trade negotiations is a leading trend in mining, according to a new report by natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

It’s number two on its list of mega-trends in energy and mining this year as governments try to chip away at China’s control of more than 80% of processing and the vast majority of high-performance magnet output. The 15 elements of the Periodic Table’s lanthanide series, plus scandium and yttrium, are considered rare earths.

Beijing’s tightening of export controls in April 2025, including special licences for selected rare earths and magnets, sharpened the trade talks push, prompting a wave of bilateral frameworks, G7 initiatives and project-level offtake deals aimed at locking in non-Chinese supply.

“The extraordinary leverage of rare earth elements in trade negotiations was a profound demonstration of both national industrial strategy and China’s hold on high-tech manufacturing,” Wood Mackenzie’s Malcolm Forbes-Cable said in the report released Thursday.

The 2025 recap shows rare earths moving to the centre of global energy security as China’s dominance in refining and magnet materials gives it growing geopolitical leverage. That backdrop explains the surge of US, European and Canadian rare earth deals in 2024–25: Governments are trying to build resilient, non-Chinese supply chains for technologies ranging from electric-vehicle motors to defence systems. Rare earth agreements no longer appear niche but part of a broader push to secure strategic materials for the energy transition.

Rare earth elements refined supply outlook by region and use
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Rare Earths Market Service

US deals

The leading trend on Wood Mackenzie’s list is the United States emerging as the world’s leading liquid natural gas exporter. The UK North Sea’s accelerating loss of value; Europe’s petrochemical sector contracting as production grows elsewhere; and artificial intelligence driving a sharp rise in electricity demand across major economies also made the rundown.

Washington has led government-to-government rare earth diplomacy, starting with an April 2024 critical minerals memorandum with Norway. This year it has added a G7 action plan and a G7 alliance to co-ordinate investment and long-term offtakes, struck an Oct. 27 framework with Japan on mining and processing, and signed a Trump–Takaichi pact covering rare earths, lithium, cobalt and nickel. It followed up with an October memorandum with Malaysia on trade, investment and recycling, and a parallel framework with Australia positioning Canberra as its key partner in reducing China’s dominance in rare earths.

“China’s capture of almost 90% of the world’s refined rare earths supply put it in prime trade-negotiating position,” Forbes-Cable said. “To all intents and purposes, the US entered the talks with one arm tied behind its back. In a twist of fate, the US had been the world’s leading producer of rare earth elements until the late 20th century.”

Canada has presented itself as a democratic alternative supplier. Ottawa and Berlin signed a declaration in August to deepen critical-minerals co-operation, and a separate policy proposal outlined a Canada–Japan–Korea framework tying rare earth supply to defence technology. On the commercial side, the Saskatchewan Research Council reached a five-year offtake deal with US processor ReAlloys, and Canada Rare Earth (TSXV: LL) continued lining up partners for a permitted South American project.

Europe, Japan

Europe has folded rare earths into a wider network of critical raw materials partnerships with Canada, Norway, Argentina, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Namibia, Kazakhstan and Australia, giving Brussels preferential access to concentrates and separated oxides. Several African agreements include language on local processing, though progress remains slow. Japan has layered on its own deals, including a government agency (Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security) partnership with Namibia Critical Metals (TSXV: NMI) at the Lofdal heavy rare earth project.

Across the Asia–Pacific and the Americas, 2024 and 2025 brought a shift toward concrete offtakes. Australia’s ABx Group and Ucore Rare Metals (TSXV: UCU) signed a memorandum setting up an Australia–US supply chain, while Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU) and Tronox (NYSE: TROX) advanced new processing capacity backed by export-credit support. Arafura Rare Earths (ASX: ARU) progressed its Nolans project, which is expected to supply about 4% of global rare earths once in production.

Recycling

Recycling has added its own stream of cross-border deals. Cyclic Materials signed an offtake with Solvay (EBR: SOLB) to ship recycled mixed oxides from Kingston, Ontario, to France, and later announced a $25 million research centre to support a circular rare earth supply into Europe’s magnet sector.

The project pipeline now reflects this broader trade shift. Governments and buyers have begun funding mines and refineries directly, supporting producers such as Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC), Iluka, MP Materials (NYSE: MP) and Canada’s SRC as they build mine-to-magnet capacity outside China. In Brazil, Serra Verde secured a $465 million US development loan and has begun re-directing future supply toward Western and Asian buyers as new separation capacity comes online.

Deal terms are changing too. Western buyers are paying notable premiums for non-Chinese rare earths and locking in long-term offtakes with price floors and take-or-pay commitments. Solvay’s expansion in France and the SRC–ReAlloys agreement in Saskatchewan show how recent policy frameworks are translating into specific trade flows for both mined and recycled rare earths across major regions.