Russia-Ukraine tension may give rise to a new commodity world order

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has the potential to establish a new commodity world order that tilts reliable supply toward North America, Bloomberg Intelligence says in a research note.

Analyst Mike McGlone argues that should oil and gas prices continue to spike amid the increased geopolitical tension, it could very well be the catalyst for a global recession.

“The conflict is unique, but in 2008, the severe risk-asset reversion was aggravated by a sharp rally in West Texas Intermediate crude oil to its peak around $145 a barrel,” said McGlone.

The analyst believes the crude oil market will likely mirror past reversion patterns from elevated prices. Brent crude has dropped about 80% on three occasions since the 2008 peak. “It’s possible that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggers a global recession and accelerates electrification and decarbonization trends,” said McGlone.

According to Bloomberg, should prices sustain near end-of-February levels, it should be a boon for energy and agriculture producers. Crude oil and most grain prices are currently trending well above US production costs.