Uranium demand for nuclear power set to surge nearly 30% by 2030 – report

Global uranium demand is expected to soar as nuclear power cements its role in the clean energy transition, according to the World Nuclear Association’s biennial Nuclear Fuel Report released Friday.

The association, a London-based industry group promoting nuclear power on behalf of companies across the fuel cycle, forecasts uranium demand for nuclear reactors will climb 28% by 2030. It may reach nearly 87,000 tonnes annually before more than doubling to over 150,000 tonnes by 2040. That compares to about 67,000 tonnes consumed in 2024.

The growth is tied to a rapid buildout of nuclear power capacity worldwide.

Current global nuclear capacity of 398 gigawatts electric (GWe), with another 71 GWe under construction, is projected to increase by 13% by 2030 and by nearly 87% to 746 GWe by 2040.

“The shift reflects governments leaning more heavily on nuclear power to meet energy security goals and net-zero carbon targets,” the association said.

Scenarios for growth

The industry group examined three scenarios:

• Reference Scenario – Based on existing government and utility plans, nuclear capacity rises from 372 GWe in 2024 to 686 GWe by 2040.
• Upper Scenario – Under more favourable policies, capacity could reach 966 GWe.
• Lower Scenario – If implementation lags, capacity would still grow to 582 GWe.

By 2040, demand could range from 107,000 tU (which means tonnes of pure uranium metal, regardless of whether the material is in ore, concentrate like uranium oxide U₃O₈, or another compound) in the Lower Scenario to over 204,000 tU in the Upper Scenario.

While current uranium mine supply – bolstered by a 22% increase in production between 2022 and 2024 to 60,213 tonnes – is sufficient in the short term, the industry group warned of looming deficits.

After 2030, output from existing mines is forecast to halve, creating a pressing need for new mines and restarts of idle operations. With it taking 10 to 20 years to develop new uranium projects, the association stressed the importance of accelerated investment now to avoid disruptions.

“Mine supply is adequate in the short term, but shortfalls could occur after 2030,” the group said in the report.

BMO’s take 

The association’s uranium demand growth forecast has been raised to a 5.3% compound annual growth rate through 2040, up from 4.1% previously, BMO Capital Markets said in a note on Friday. It’s well above the bank’s own estimate of about 3.6%.

Analysts added that financing solutions are gaining attention as the industry confronts the challenge of tripling nuclear capacity by 2050.

“Recent production challenges highlight supply side risk, which could see some improvement in spot market and contracting volumes into year-end as we enter this typically seasonally stronger period of the year,” BMO concluded.

Market dynamics 

Geopolitical tensions – particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – have disrupted regional enrichment markets, driving demand for expanded enrichment capacity, the group said. 

Meanwhile, small modular reactors are also expected to contribute to the growth trajectory, offering cheaper, faster-to-build nuclear options that could expand nuclear deployment beyond traditional large-scale plants.

The association also highlighted how several countries with phase-out or moratorium policies on nuclear energy are now revisiting those stances amid energy security concerns and decarbonization commitments.

This reassessment ranges from legislating reversals (like in Belgium and Switzerland) to exploring new reactor technologies (Denmark, Spain) and broader strategic shifts (Japan).

The association concluded that the coming decade will be decisive: unless new uranium projects are advanced now, the sector risks significant supply crunches just as nuclear power demand accelerates.