US, Canada set to seal trade deal at APEC summit

A US-Canada trade agreement on steel, aluminum, and energy is reportedly ready for Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump to sign at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit later this month.

Sources familiar with the negotiations told The Globe and Mail that the deal will likely involve Canada accepting steel export quotas in exchange for reduced US tariffs. Talks have excluded critical minerals, despite Washington’s broader push to secure these resources.

Trump triggered the dispute earlier this year by imposing tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and cars. Ottawa responded with its own tariffs, setting off months of negotiations aimed at de-escalating the trade war. As part of its strategy, Canada has offered targeted tariff relief on select US and Chinese steel and aluminum products to support domestic industries caught in the crossfire.

Carney visited Washington in early October and said he had reached “a meeting of minds” with Trump on the future of steel and aluminum trade. Their discussions also touched on energy cooperation, with Carney raising the defunct Keystone XL pipeline as a possible bargaining chip.

Originally designed to move 830,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Alberta to Nebraska, Keystone XL was terminated in 2021 by Calgary-based TC Energy (TSE: TRP-A) after former US President Joe Biden revoked its permit shortly after taking office. The company then spun off its oil pipeline business into a new company, South Bow. In February, when Trump repeated calls to get the pipeline built, South Bow said that it had “moved on” from Keystone.

Carney on Tuesday expressed caution on an imminent trade deal with the US, saying he “wouldn’t overplay it.”

“We’ll see. We are in ongoing discussions with the Americans, and I wouldn’t overplay it,” Carney told reporters in Ottawa when asked about the report, confirming that he planned to meet Trump in South Korea.

The White House and the US Commerce Department did not respond to requests for comment.