Gold price climbs to three-week high on US-Iran ceasefire

Gold climbed to its highest in three weeks on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, calming inflation worries that have upended global markets.

Spot gold rose as much as 3% to over $4,850 per ounce, extending its previous session’s gains in the lead-up to the ceasefire announcement.

Bullion has come under pressure in recent weeks amid worries that rising oil prices from the Middle East conflict would create inflationary pressures and prevent central banks from cutting interest rates, a scenario that benefits non-yielding assets like gold.

The latest bounce comes after the US and Iran agreed to halt strikes for two weeks, easing some of those concerns. This takes gold back to levels last seen on March 19, though prices remain down 9% since the war began, as the metal recovers from its worst monthly performance since 2008.

“The ceasefire is calming markets and easing pressure. It could ​help roll back some inflationary pressures and might open the door for Fed rate ​cuts, which is bullish for gold,” Edward Meir, a Marex analyst, told Reuters earlier.

‘Window of relief’

However, Meir and others have also cautioned that any recovery in gold at this moment remains fragile until there is further clarity on the US-Iran “agreement”.

“There are so many elements that need to be negotiated. They could easily unravel, and it could be ​a short-term recovery in all the markets. We’re still not out of the ​woods,” Meir said.

Ahmad Assiri, a strategist at Pepperstone Group, said gold’s push above $4,800 reflects “a recalibration of risk, rather than a full regime shift.

“The move higher suggests markets are now pricing in a lower probability of prolonged disruption, while still retaining a meaningful discount versus the pre-Iran setup,” he wrote in a note cited by Bloomberg.

“In the near term, gold remains highly sensitive to political developments,” Assiri continued. “The current ceasefire provides a window of relief, but it is conditional and fragile. Any sign of breakdown, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, would likely reintroduce volatility and downside risk.”

Longer term, analysts are still expecting bullion to maintain its uptrend as the inflation risks fade away. Recently, Goldman Sachs reiterated its target price of $5,400 an ounce — around 13% higher than current levels. Those at Wells Fargo also doubled down on gold recently, with an upside target of $6,300 per ounce.

So far in 2026, gold has risen by 8.5%, with most of its gains coming in January as it rallied toward a record nearly $5,600 an ounce.