On Wednesday gold surged past the $1,300 an ounce level with December futures trading on the Comex market in New York jumping more than $60 or nearly 5% to exchange hands for a high $1,338.30 an ounce before paring much of the gains.
Ahead of the US markets opening gold was back trading at $1,299 an ounce in massive volumes.
Financial markets around the world braced for a sell-off after Trump’s triumph in the US presidential elections with gold benefitting from safe haven buying. The metal also made the most the fall in the value of the dollar with the US dollar index losing nearly 2% to 96.15, before clawing back most of the decline.
Conventional wisdom is that the gold price and the dollar move in opposite directions. The dollar’s all-time peak of 164.7 was reached in February 1985. That coincided with a bottom in the price of gold of $284.25 an ounce. In August and September 2011, when gold was peaking above $1,900, the dollar index dipped below 75.
Last week HSBC Chief Precious Metals Analyst James Steel was quoted by Bloomberg as saying a Clinton win would be supportive of the gold price, but a Trump triumph could spark as much as a $200 an ounce jump in the price adding that the metal could “enjoy at least a 8 percent jump whoever wins the race”:
Both candidates have espoused trade policies that could stimulate demand, with gold offering a potential “protection against protectionism,” he says. Even the relatively more internationalist Democratic candidate has argued for the renegotiation of longstanding free-trade agreements. That’s positive for gold — even if “not on the scale of Mr Trump’s agenda.
Year to date gold is managing gains of over 20% or some $250 an ounce, one of its best annual performances since 1980.