Long-term, the deal could be viewed as the first step of a more disciplined approach to iron ore supply by aligning two of the world’s “big four” producers of the commodity.
The recent surge in prices of gold, oil and other commodities has come prematurely, says the bank, arguing that lower prices are needed for markets to rebalance.
EY notes that after the fifth consecutive year of declining deal volume and values, increasing levels of financial distress will trigger more divestments, spin-offs, joint ventures and possibly hostile takeover bids.
Riding a rocketing iron ore price, market cap of Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Fortescue Metals and Anglo American gain a combined 54% since early February.
With few options left to salvage investments hit by a prolonged downturn in commodity prices, more shareholders are demanding change at miners they perceive to have strong assets but weak boards and management.