Mining’s top ten ESG trends for 2026

A volatile global order, intensifying climate extremes, and the race for critical minerals are reshaping mining in 2026. Geopolitics, investor expectations, and social tensions are converging on mines and supply chains worldwide, while ESG continues to be politically contentious in some jurisdictions. Yet the underlying drivers of risk, regulation, capital, and community expectation are as relevant as ever.

For 2026, the real question is less whether ESG matters and more how mining leaders focus on what really moves the dial: resilience, access to capital, licence to operate, and competitiveness. Below are our top ten ESG trends shaping the sector this year.

1: Geopolitics reshape mining’s risk landscape

Geopolitics is becoming a primary driver of mining risk; nearly half of respondents to White & Case’s Mining & Metals 2025 survey see geopolitical fragmentation as a key determinant of sector activity, ahead of traditional market fundamentals. Russia’s war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East, and recurring coups in parts of Africa are altering trade routes, raising costs, and complicating project delivery.

Strategic security analyses now position critical minerals as a theatre of great-power rivalry, with export controls, investment screening, stockpiling and “friend-shoring” becoming fundamental tools of statecraft. The context magnifies ESG risk, particularly across governance and human rights. In the year ahead, most mining leaders will need to treat geopolitics as core board-level risk, diversifying supply chains, scenario-planning for sanctions and conflict, and integrating geopolitical risk assessment into due diligence and strategic decision-making.

2: ESG backlash drives strategic recalibration

ESG and DEI have become lightning rods in wider political debates, yet most companies are refining rather than abandoning their strategies. In the US, over 100 anti-ESG bills had been introduced at state level by mid-2025, prompting many to walk back or rebrand DEI programmes amid legal and political pressure.

The current administration’s efforts to de‑emphasize climate and social risk in financial regulation has material impacts for companies with US-based financing, but haven’t eliminated ESG as a global capital requirement. The Conference Board shows 80% of large companies are reworking, not exiting, ESG, while HSBC’s 2025 corporate leader surveys found 95% now see climate transition as a source of growth, and nearly all expect sustainability to be critical to competitiveness. Amid polarisation and misinformation, the miners that thrive will be those that ditch the slogans, double down on material company issues, and communicate clearly how ESG underpins resilience and long-term value.

3: AI governance gaps create liability risk

Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming core to mining ESG management and an ESG topic in its own right. Deloitte’s Tracking the Trends 2025 highlights AI, automation, and digital twinning for safety, productivity and environmental performance. Use cases include real-time monitoring of water, tailings, and air emissions, predictive maintenance and safety analytics, satellite-based land-use monitoring and automated Scope 3 accounting. Yet, ESG-focused analyses warn of the significant environmental footprints, social and labour issues, bias and explainability challenges, and cyber-security vulnerabilities.

Recent AI governance surveys suggest that two-thirds of organisations can’t reliably enforce limits on how AI systems are used, and six in ten lack effective kill switches. Left unchecked, AI quickly becomes a major governance liability.

4: Tailings governance shifts from voluntary to compliance

ICMM’s November 2025 progress report confirmed that 67% of member facilities have achieved full Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management (GISTM) conformance, with the remainder progressing more slowly than anticipated. Meanwhile, the November 2025 UK High Court ruling on BHP’s liability for Samarco shows that failure to meet standard-of-care tailings management standards can constitute negligence across multiple jurisdictions.

Looking ahead, the World Mine Tailings Failures database forecasts a further 13 catastrophic failures between 2025 and 2029, signalling that tailings governance is now an enterprise risk imperative. Expect lenders and regulators to increase focus on conformance for non-compliant facilities, scenario analyses exploring climate-induced failure triggers (e.g. extreme rainfall, seismic activity, permafrost thaw), third-party assurance and proper integration of tailings risk into capital allocation and financing decisions.

5: Critical minerals rush deepens social tensions

The rush for critical minerals is intensifying mining’s long-standing social and security risks. The IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 forecasts steep demand growth and, absent stronger governance, more social conflicts over land, water, and labour. The Business & Human Rights Resource Centre’s Transition Minerals Tracker 2025 documents 835 allegations of abuse linked to major operations over the past 15 years, including 157 attacks on human rights defenders, 225 worker impacts and ongoing disproportionate harm to Indigenous Peoples.

UNODC’s 2025 Minerals Crime report documents expanding criminal and conflict-linked activity in artisanal mining, further heightening security and human rights risks. Meanwhile, rulings such as Gitxaała Nation v. BC in Canada embed Indigenous consultation obligations into permitting, as the minerals rush accelerates project timelines and fuels resource nationalism. The industry faces an uncomfortable tension: how to secure minerals essential to defence, energy and technology without repeating the inequality, violence, environmental devastation and corruption of past mining booms.

6: Climate impacts stress‑test transition plans

Climate change is already materially disrupting operations today. UNEP FI’s analysis of climate risks in metals and mining highlights escalating production losses, maintenance costs and stranded-asset risk from extreme weather, water stress and rising temperatures. KPMG’s 2025 Australian Mining Risk Forecast ranks climate change a top business risk, with fires, floods and cyclones increasingly affecting key producing regions.

Meanwhile, ISSB’s IFRS S2 standard is being adopted or considered across dozens of jurisdictions covering more than half of global GDP, with mandatory climate-related financial disclosures ramping up. In this context, transition plans must move from planning documents to site-level execution: credible, costed adaptation measures and integrated resilience planning will increasingly affect access to capital, insurance and permits.

7: Nature and water become investment dealbreakers

Nature and water risk are moving from “emerging topics” to hard screening filters, as biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation become understood as systemic financial risks. A 2025 Oxford corporate nature risk perceptions survey found that nearly half of companies globally now view nature risks as financially material, with 43% saying physical nature risks already affect them today.

Barclays’ 2025 analysis of 250 mines has calculated that nature risks could cut mining company earnings by 25% over five years, and ICMM has backed up its nature-positive commitment with new implementation guidance. Meanwhile, TNFD’s 2025 status report confirms 730+ adopters, including 179 financial institutions with $22 trillion in assets. For mining, GRI 14: Mining Sector 2024 (effective 1 January 2026) formalises water use, land disturbance and biodiversity as material topics requiring more granular disclosure. Those that can’t demonstrate coherent nature and water strategies will find it increasingly hard to secure approvals and capital for both new projects and expansions.

8: Boards face rising shareholder scrutiny

Boards face rising pressure to demonstrate ESG competence and integrate material sustainability risks into corporate governance. 2025 marked a record number of activist campaigns, with boards increasingly challenged on capital allocation, climate strategy and governance. High-profile shareholder votes against climate and capital plans (such as Woodside Energy) show that boards can no longer just assume backing on ESG-material decisions.

Rising US anti-ESG activism also requires boards to equip themselves to defend strategic risk decisions. Director liability for ESG oversight is also rising across jurisdictions. For mining boards, this means developing demonstrable ESG literacy through structured competency building (such as the Responsible Mining Academy), formal governance structures (often dedicated sustainability committees), and early investor dialogue on material ESG decisions.

9: Value chain accountability shifts to enforcement

Regulators are ramping up pressure on companies to demonstrate value chain accountability, moving beyond policy statements to enforcement. Canada’s Fighting Against Forced Labour and Child Labour in Supply Chains Act has identified high-risk sectors and warned tolerance for boilerplate reporting will be short-lived.

In Australia, the recent statutory review of the Modern Slavery Act 2018 (Cth) recommends stronger obligations and penalties, and legal analyses anticipate stronger enforcement, with mining singled out for rising scrutiny. In Europe, CSRD and the forthcoming CSDDD embed mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence across supply chains. Miners will need to move beyond mere policy commitments and prepare to show evidence of effective identification, prioritisation and remediation of value chain risks, particularly forced labour, forced migration, and rights of Indigenous Peoples.

10: ESG reporting harmonisation and greenwashing enforcement intensify

ESG disclosure is converging around common standards and facing tougher enforcement, with miners increasingly judged on comparable, assured performance data, not glossy narratives. IFRS S1 and S2 standards are being woven into reporting regimes across dozens of jurisdictions, with mandatory climate disclosures starting from 2025. In parallel, CSRD is live in the EU, with ESRS reports and limited assurance becoming mandatory, and GRI 14: Mining Sector 2024 takes effect globally from 2026.

Regulators in Australia, the UK, EU and Canada have made greenwashing enforcement a priority, leading to investigations and fines. Expect a mix of cleaner claims, quieter messaging and growing “greenhushing” behaviour, but not always better disclosure. Companies face more pressure to align with converging internationally-recognized standards, as well as higher legal and reputational stakes if bold claims don’t match the underlying data. Those that can disclose robust, decision‑useful data will gain an edge with lenders, investors, communities and regulators.

Looking ahead

2026 will continue to challenge mining companies to move beyond generic ESG narratives and aspirations to disciplined execution on what really matters to their business: navigating geopolitics, building climate and nature resilience, managing the social fallout of the critical minerals rush, cleaning up value chains, and doing all of this in an environment of political polarisation and tighter regulation. This challenge will be less about “doing good” and more about protecting and creating value by reducing downside risk, securing scarce capital, winning permits and offtakes, and maintaining the trust of workers, communities, and governments.

Coming out ahead will be companies that integrate ESG into risk and strategy, focus on their material issues, rely on solid data, manage trade-offs transparently, and adapt pragmatically to complex local and global conditions.

Elizabeth Freele and Rachel Dekker are co-founders of mining consultancy Sympact and online learning platform the Responsible Mining Academy, supporting companies to meet rapidly evolving expectations of business through advisory services, training, and thought leadership.