Analysts ramp up gold price forecasts as global uncertainties mount

Gold is set for another record performance in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, as analysts ramp up their forecasts, with geopolitical uncertainty and robust central bank buying still the main drivers.

A poll of 30 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks returned a median gold forecast of $4,746.50 per troy ounce for 2026, the highest annual forecast in Reuters polls dating back to 2012, and compared with $4,275 estimated in October.

Gold’s recent surge has prompted analysts to raise their forecasts multiple times. A year ago, a similar poll showed an average forecast of just $2,700 for 2026.

“We are entering a period in which the legitimacy and resilience of the institutions and systems that have underpinned global economic and geopolitical stability for decades are being tested in ways not seen in a generation,” said David Russell, CEO at precious metals dealer and broker GoldCore.

Bullish drivers remain intact

Gold prices bounced to near $5,100 on Wednesday, a day after posting its best day in more than 17 years to recover from the yellow metal’s worst two-day rout since 1983.

Gold’s rally took it to all-time highs just shy of $5,600 on January 29 before prices plunged to $4,403 an ounce on Monday, with the meltdown and profit-taking sparked by US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve chair.

Analysts believe the factors driving gold – including geopolitical risks, robust central bank buying, concerns about Fed independence, rising US debt, trade uncertainty, and de-dollarization – will continue to support the safe-haven asset in 2026.

“Gold’s thematic drivers remain positive and we believe investors’ rationale for gold (and precious) allocations will not have changed,” analysts at Deutsche Bank said.

Analysts expect central banks to keep adding to their gold reserves as they diversify and reduce reliance on the US dollar, although jewellery demand is likely to contract further in key Asian regions due to high prices.

Upgraded silver outlook

Silver price forecasts were also revised up, with analysts now expecting the metal to average $79.50 per ounce in 2026, compared with a $50 forecast for 2026 in the October poll.

Silver, both a safe-haven asset and industrial metal, surged a record 147% in 2025 and extended its winning streak to scale an all-time high of $121.64 on January 29 before slumping to $89.70.

The recent rally was driven by retail and momentum-based buying, adding to a prolonged spell of tightness in physical markets, which is now easing.

Analysts expect silver prices to remain highly volatile with sharper pullbacks likely due to declining demand.

Industrial demand for silver is already showing signs of decline as solar module manufacturers shift away for cost reasons while jewellery demand is also weakening, said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.

(By Ishaan Arora, Ashitha Shivaprasad and Swati Verma; Editing by Pratima Desai and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)