Australia lifts commodity export outlook on iron ore, gold price

Australia has boosted its forecast for commodity export earnings as gold prices continue their breakneck rally and iron ore holds up despite falling Chinese steel production. 

The value of all raw material shipments will be A$383 billion ($253 billion) in the year through June 2026, almost 4% higher than an estimate three months ago, the government said in its Resources and Energy Quarterly. The forecast for the following 12 months was raised by A$20 billion to A$374 billion.

After a brief consolidation period, gold has resumed its advance over the last few weeks. The price of iron ore, Australia’s biggest export, has been supported by restocking in China, although a standoff between BHP Group and China Mineral Resources Group Co., Beijing’s state-run buyer, has disrupted trade recently, according to the report.

“The outlook for total Australia’s exports of resource and energy commodities has improved markedly,” the government said in the report. “Gold exports are rising rapidly, iron ore exports have held up better than expected” and the Australian dollar has not risen as expected against the greenback, it said.

Iron ore prices are forecast to decline only gradually through 2027 as new supply enters the market and steel demand weakens. The benchmark price is seen averaging $85 a ton in 2026 and $82 in 2027, down from $93 in 2024, according to the report.

Prices for gold, which is expected to overtake liquefied natural gas to become Australia’s second most valuable export in the current financial year, are likely to remain strong. Domestic production is set to increase 16% to around 340 tons in the year through June, the government said.

(By Katharine Gemmell)