Chile delays copper output peak, cuts short-term forecasts

Chile has delayed by several years its goal of reaching peak annual copper production above 6 million metric tons, while cutting a significant part of its output estimates for the coming years.

The revision, outlined on Monday in a report from state-run agency Cochilco, comes amid falling ore grades and adjustments to mining plans in the Andean country, the world’s largest producer of the metal.

Cochilco said in its 2025-2034 outlook that Chile’s copper output is set to reach 5.86 million metric tons in 2034, after hitting a peak of 6.06 million tons the previous year.

In its previous 10-year outlook released in 2024, the agency had forecast a production peak of 6.07 million tons in 2027. It has now lowered its estimate for that year to 5.97 million tons.

Annual production forecasts were trimmed for the entire 2026-2031 period compared with last year’s report, with a recovery expected only in the final three years of the projected horizon.

“Although projects currently under execution and those included in the investment pipeline would allow for a gradual production recovery toward the end of the period, output would stabilize at levels similar to those seen today,” Cochilco said.

“A scenario of sustained long‑term growth has not yet materialized,” it added, stressing that advancing the country’s investment pipeline is crucial to mitigating the decline in production.

Chile’s share of global copper output is projected to fall to 21.5% in 2030 from 23% in 2027, the agency said, before recovering to 27% by 2034, depending on whether expected investments come through.

(By Fabian Cambero and Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Cassandra Garrison)