China’s gold miners set for strong 2026 on deals, higher output

China’s gold miners are set to outperform their global peers and cash in on a record-breaking 2026, driven by lofty gold prices and aggressive growth plans.

Companies like Zijin Gold International Co., Shandong Gold Mining Co. and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co. are on track for their biggest profits in 2026. This follows a stellar 2025, when surging prices and increased production levels drove earnings to historic highs.

Gold climbed past $5,000 an ounce earlier this year, underpinned by geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand. While a recent rebound in the US dollar, higher oil prices and inflation concerns linked to the Middle East war have triggered a pullback — bullion has lost more than a 10th of its value since Feb. 28 — broader economic uncertainty and risk aversion may support prices.

While international rivals are seeing declining output and limited project pipelines, Chinese gold miners have been pursuing higher volumes and acquiring more overseas mines.

One of the biggest deals include Zijin Gold’s $C5.5 billion ($4 billion) acquisition of Canada’s Allied Gold Corp., which operates mines in Africa. That will set the company apart from western competitors like Newmont Corp. and Fresnillo Plc who are curtailing output this year.

“Chinese miners are snapping up mines that global giants avoid,” said Eric Xiao, head of sales at CMC Markets Singapore. “Beijing’s diplomatic muscle gives it staying power no Western peer can rival.”

While Xiao added these deals bring risks including local instability and operational hazards, HSBC’s China materials analyst Howard Lau said Chinese producers are experiencing record margins that will provide strong operating leverage.

“There is still room for profit growth in 2026 as production volumes expand through recently completed or newly acquired projects and organic growth through project expansion,” he said.

Zijin Gold is set to release its first full-year earnings report since its September IPO on March 20. The miner has already signaled a strong 2025 with preliminary net income more than tripling, while Bloomberg estimates suggest profits will more than double again this year.

Competitor Shandong Gold said net income rose as much as 66%, with consensus pointing to 70% growth in 2026. While Chifeng Jilong likely saw an 81% rise last year, its growth is expected to moderate to 31% this year.

Global peers fall behind

That follows solid results from European and American gold miners in recent weeks, although concerns about lower production have dragged sentiment.

Hochschild Mining Plc benefited from what it called an “extraordinary uplift” in precious metal prices, with full-year earnings rising more than analysts expected, while fellow London-listed miner Fresnillo reported an 81% jump in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

In the US, Newmont — the world’s biggest gold miner — posted record quarterly profit, while Canada’s Barrick Mining Corp. beat earnings estimates. Still, shares of both slipped after results on concerns about capital expenditure and a slowdown in production.

Newmont expects to produce less in 2026, partly due to planned upgrades at some of its managed mines and lower production at two joint ventures with Barrick Mining.

Hochschild’s production also slightly dipped due to planned work at one of its mines, while Australia’s Northern Star Resources Ltd. sank after cutting output guidance.

Expenses are another concern, with Fresnillo’s capital expenditure budget for 2026 coming in higher than expected, sending shares lower as investors questioned when these investments would translate into growth.

“Upside likely depends on continued capital restraint and higher shareholder returns,” BI analysts Grant Sporre and Umesh Agarwal said, adding that rising costs could pressure miners’ margins in the second half of the year.

(By Rachel Yeo and Chloé Meley)