Codelco to feel accident impact into 2026 in blow to recovery

Codelco’s top mine will run well below capacity for the next several months, signaling that the impact of a deadly accident will drag on well into next year, said people with knowledge of the matter.

While its El Teniente mine in Chile has resumed operations after a collapse on July 31, the rate of production probably won’t get much above three-quarters of previous levels well into 2026, the people said, asking not to be named discussing internal deliberations.

The massive rock blast that killed six people occurred in an area of the sprawling underground mine that had just started producing and was scheduled to account for an increasing portion of production over the coming years.

The incident is imperiling Codelco’s efforts to recover from a protracted production slump and threatening its position as the world’s biggest supplier. El Teniente’s struggles add to a string of disruptions at major copper mines around the world as the energy transition and building of more data centers start to push up demand for the wiring metal.

Codelco is yet to request permission from regulators to restart activities at the still-shuttered sections of the mine, the people said. That won’t happen until after it completes an investigation in December, they said.

Production losses from the accident are estimated at 48,000 metric tons for this year, up from a previous forecast of 33,000 tons, Reuters quoted chairman Maximo Pacheco as saying Friday. Still, he expects the state-owned firm as a whole to post higher annual output. El Teniente’s annual production last year was 356,000 tons.

While Codelco is yet to offer production guidance for 2026, research center Cesco sees the state behemoth struggling to return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.

“Most likely, this year’s figure will end up close to last year’s, or perhaps a bit lower,” Cesco senior analysts Cristian Cifuentes said in an interview. “Looking ahead to 2026, I think production will be very similar as well — fairly stable over the next few years.”

At El Teniente, the company is assessing ways to mitigate the losses from closed areas in other sections of the mine. Much depends on the outcome of the investigation.

The accident’s impact on El Teniente production probably will be similar next year as this year, according to consultancy Plusmining.

“The issue is that the affected area contains replacement resources, and it seems that the full impact won’t be felt until later,” Plusmining founder Juan Carlos Guajardo said. “The real question remains for the years ahead.”

(By James Attwood)