Column: China’s major commodities tell a story of prices and inventories

China’s imports of major commodities were on divergent tracks in November, with crude oil and iron ore powering ahead but copper and coal losing steam.

The contrasting outcomes make it difficult to come up with a single narrative for demand in the world’s biggest buyer of natural resources.

Rather than underlying demand for commodities, the main driver of China’s imports appears to be price, with crude oil and iron ore enjoying stable prices in recent months, but copper and coal moving higher.

Crude oil imports reached the equivalent of 12.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, a 27-month high, according to customs data released on Monday.

This was up 8.7% from the 11.39 million bpd in October and also above the 11.81 million bpd from November last year.

Imports were also up 3.2% in the first 11 months of the year to the equivalent of 11.41 million bpd.

Steady crude prices in recent months, with global benchmark Brent futures anchored around $65 a barrel since easing after the spike caused by the brief Israel-Iran conflict, have encouraged China to purchase oil for stockpiles.

China’s surplus crude was about 900,000 bpd in the first 10 months of the year, according to calculations based on official data for imports, domestic output and refinery processing.

Similar to crude oil, inventory builds appear to be at work in iron ore, with imports of the key steel raw material remaining robust in November.

Iron ore arrivals were 110.54 million tons in November, stronger on a per day basis than the 111.31 million for October, and also 8.5% higher than the 101.86 million from November 2024.

China’s port inventories of iron ore rose to 142.4 million tons in the week to December 5, the most since late February and 9.5% higher than the 18-month low of 130.1 million hit in August.

Also similar to crude oil, iron ore prices have been relatively steady in recent months, with futures traded on the Singapore Exchange in a range between $100 and $108 a ton since early August, and were at $106.45 in Asian trade on Monday.

Copper, coal

Price may be a factor in the soft imports of refined copper, which dropped to 427,000 tons in November, down from October’s 438,000 and 528,000 in November last year.

London copper prices have been trending higher in recent months, gaining almost 40% from the low so far in 2025 of $8,105 a ton in April to a record high of $11,705 on December 5.

Even though China is the world’s largest importer and producer of copper, the price moves are being driven by rising imports in the United States, with traders and producers taking advantage of higher prices for the industrial metal there amid fears that President Donald Trump will impose new tariffs in 2026.

US imports of refined copper more than doubled year-on-year to 1.19 million tons in the first eight months of the year, with the trend likely to continue as long as the arbitrage opportunity encourages the flow from the rest of the world.

China’s coal imports rose to 44.05 million tons in November from October’s 41.74 million, but were still down almost 20% from 54.98 million in November last year.

Over the first 11 months of 2025 imports of all grades of coal have dropped 12% to 431.68 million tons.

Imports of thermal coal are largely influenced by China’s domestic production and prices, and lower prices earlier in the year dragged down seaborne grades to four-year lows in July.

Since then seaborne coal prices have recovered in line with China’s domestic prices, which has capped volumes at lower levels than for the same months in 2024.

(The views expressed here are those of the author, Clyde Russell, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)