Copper price jumps as China traders cheer prospect of lower US levies

Base metals gained as China’s markets reopened after the Lunar New Year break and traders cheered potentially lower US tariffs.

Copper rallied as much as 2.8% to reach $13,228 a ton in London and aluminum also inched higher. China faces less-punitive charges, a boost for the country’s metal-intensive exports, with the administration proposing a 15% levy after the Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump’s reciprocal duties.

“The US Supreme Court dismantled the most cost-effective tariff instrument, but not the new tariff regime overall,” Allianz SE analysts, including chief investment officer Ludovic Subran, wrote in a note. “Uncannily, the Global South and China now emerge as the biggest winners.”

The gains in metals were echoed by a positive tone in mainland equities, as the benchmark CSI 300 Index also advanced on Tuesday. Under the new trade framework — if it’s confirmed — Morgan Stanley estimated that the average US levy on goods from China will drop to 24% from 32%.

The US news is bullish for metals, said Jon Li, an analyst at Guangzhou Finance Holdings Futures Co. Demand from manufacturers will return, he added.

Copper has consolidated at a high level since hitting a record in January, with moves driven by frequent shifts in US policy, as well as mine snarls and forecasts for higher consumption from the energy transition. Higher prices have weighed on physical demand in China, causing exchange-tracked inventories to expand to the highest since 2024. Holdings of the red metal have been rising in the US, as well as in London Metal Exchange-tracked sheds.

Copper rose 2.3% to settle at $13,166.50 a ton on the LME. Aluminum was up 0.1%, as all base metals climbed.