No sign yet of China’s plan to cut copper output in major smelters’ results

Major Chinese copper smelters are planning to raise or maintain output in 2026, their earnings outlooks show, despite a public commitment by the state-linked industry association last year to cut production by over 10%.

The China Smelter Purchase Team (CSPT), a group of 16 of the top copper smelters, agreed last year to cut production to counter overcapacity amid falling processing fees for copper concentrates.

But there’s no sign of output cuts in guidance issued by three major smelters, all CSPT members, as part of annual earnings over the past few weeks.

Jiangxi Copper, China’s top copper smelter, raised 2026 production guidance for copper cathodes to 2.39 million metric tons, up from 2.38 million tons produced in 2025.

Similarly, Yunnan Copper increased its 2026 guidance to 1.71 million tons, up from 1.64 million tons produced last year.

Daye Nonferrous, which published its 2025 results on Wednesday, flagged a slight drop in 2026 to 713,000 tons, from output of 716,000 tons for last year.

The three smelters produced a third of the country’s 14.72 million tons of refined copper last year.

The production cut announcement last year was made as treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), which are traditionally paid by miners to smelters to process copper concentrates, collapsed in 2025 due to tight supply of the feedstock, leaving smelters having to pay miners.

The CSPT did not set quarterly TC/RC guidance for the fifth time in a row this week. The figure traditionally served as a benchmark for spot copper concentrate deals in China.

Negative fees have left Chinese smelters relying on by-product profits, especially sulphuric acid. Sales of sulphuric acid, for example, accounted for 14.65% of total gross profit of Jiangxi Copper, more than the gross profit from copper rod and wire and finished copper products combined in 2025.

(By Lewis Jackson and Dylan Duan; Editing by Sonali Paul)