Nornickel sharply hikes nickel surplus forecasts for this year and next

Reuters | December 15, 2025 | 7:13 am Battery Metals Markets Top Companies Russia and Central Asia Nickel Palladium

Nickel price surges to highest in seven years as supply dwindles

(Image from Nornickel’s Instagram page)

Russian mining giant Nornickel said on Monday that it had doubled its nickel surplus forecast for this year and more than doubled its forecast for 2026.

In a metals market review, Nornickel, the world’s largest palladium producer and a major producer of refined nickel, said it expected the nickel surplus this year to reach 240,000 tons, up from an estimate of 120,000 tones in July.

It said it had also more than doubled its surplus forecast for next year to 275,000 tons, up from 130,000 previously.

The global nickel market has been in surplus for the past four years due to rapid supply growth amid continued production growth in Indonesia.

Nornickel said it saw the palladium market as balanced this year, excluding investment demand.

With investment demand included, there would be a deficit of 200,000 ounces, it said.

In 2026, excluding investment activity, the palladium market deficit would be 100,000 ounces, Nornickel said.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova; Editing by Andrew Osborn)