Tesla’s EV market share seen plunging to 11% by 2025, BofA says

The Tesla Model S (left) and the Tesla Model X (right). Credit: Wikipedia

Tesla Inc. is likely to lose its position as the dominant electric-vehicle maker in the US to GM or Ford by 2025 as competitors release a barrage of 135 new electric vehicles, Bank of America analyst John Murphy said in his annual Car Wars forecast.

Elon Musk’s company will still be growing as EV sales continue to soar, but its share of the market will fall to about 11% in 2025 from over 70% today, Murphy wrote. Tesla has loyal fans, but the company won’t be able to keep up with the pace of new models coming from General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and several foreign automakers.

“Elon has had a vacuum for the last 10 years in which to operate, where there hasn’t been much competition,” Murphy said. “That vacuum is now being filled in a massive way in the next four years by very good product, not by econobox, toaster-box EVs, but real good product.”

Annual US sales of EVs could grow eightfold to more than 3.2 million by 2025 from about 400,000 last year, which gives every company launching new models — including Tesla — a crack at more sales. Murphy sees GM and Ford leading the market, with each garnering about 15% share.

GM plans to launch 17 new EV models in the US market from 2023 to 2026, Murphy said, while Ford will have six. Volkswagen AG will have 11 during that span, and the Korean duo of Hyundai and Kia will have 13. They could all be winners and steal share from Tesla, which has announced plans for the Cybertruck, a semi and the roadster.

Tesla also will be expanding in China and Europe, but it won’t be the hot-growth story it has been, Murphy said.

Five or 10 years from now, Murphy said, people will look back and ask why “Tesla didn’t take greater advantage of the free money it could have gotten, raise much more, open capacity faster, grow much faster, and shut the door.”

(By David Welch and Gabrielle Coppola)

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