Trafigura CEO expects 10mt copper supply deficit by 2030

Global commodities trader Trafigura sees a significant supply deficit in the copper market and a prolonged high-price cycle, its chief executive Jeremy Weir told the Fastmarkets Copper Seminar.

“We see a significant deficit, possibly in the region of 10 million tonnes of additional copper is required to balance the market by 2030,” he said.

Weir said China would remain a key driver of demand but the decarbonisation goals of the European Union and the new U.S. administration mean a lot more copper will be needed to meet their new infrastructure and electrical grid needs.

London copper hit near 10-year highs this week on some near-term supply tightness.

“What we expect to see is a third of the demand growth for copper is probably going to be electric vehicles, a third in this new electrification in terms of infrastructure spending and a third of emerging markets,” he said.

“I really think this is a prolonged high-price cycle and we’re going to need these high prices to incentivise new production.”

(By Julia Payne; Editing by Susan Fenton and Mark Potter)