JPMorgan raises iron ore price outlook until 2025

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JPMorgan has revised its iron ore price forecasts for the coming years, citing a more favorable outlook for the market, Kallanish reported.

JPMorgan now expects iron ore prices to follow this trajectory:

  • 2023: $117 per tonne
  • 2024: $110 per tonne
  • 2025: $105 per tonne

“The long-term outlook improved modestly during the current year, as iron ore supply growth was not as strong as expected. China’s steel production also remains resilient despite weak demand. The surplus of manufactured products is sent for export,” the bank says.

While supply is gradually increasing, with exports from Brazil and Australia in particular up 5% and 2% year-to-date respectively, this still needs to be reflected in prices, according to the bank, as demand for raw materials in China is stable.

In August, Goldman Sachs revised down its prices forecast for H2 2023 to $90 per tonne.

Iron ore futures fell on Thursday as traders sought details of China’s pledge to accelerate the rollout of more policies to consolidate its economic recovery.

The most-traded January iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange was down 0.4% at 867 yuan ($118.77) per tonne as of 0309 GMT, after advancing in the last two sessions.

On the Singapore Exchange, the steelmaking ingredient’s benchmark October reference price fell 1.2% to $120.40 per tonne.

(With files from Reuters)