Op-Ed: Lithium’s next demand wave extends beyond EV batteries

Electric vehicles (EVs) will remain the dominant source of lithium demand for at least the next 15 years, but a growing range of technologies from artificial intelligence to advanced nuclear systems could create a meaningful second wave of consumption by mid-century.

A study by GEM Mining Consulting found emerging lithium applications would contribute about 105,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually by 2035, rising to 303,000 tonnes in 2040 and 720,000 tonnes by 2050 under its base-case scenario. Those volumes represent about 2.8%, 6.1% and 10.3%, respectively, of projected demand from current applications such as electric vehicles, consumer electronics and grid-scale energy storage. In a transformative upside case where multiple lithium-intensive technologies scale simultaneously, additional demand could reach 2.81 million tonnes of LCE annually by 2050.

The report shows that emerging applications are unlikely to replace EVs as the primary source of lithium demand before 2040. They can, however, become material by 2050 if several technology gates are passed.

In the article, we argue that investors and industry participants should focus less on headline demand figures and more on how lithium is consumed. It distinguishes between gross lithium use, additive demand and net primary demand, noting that large inventories embedded in batteries, nuclear systems or industrial materials do not necessarily translate into new annual requirements for mined and refined lithium. Recycling, recovery and closed-loop reuse could significantly reduce the amount of fresh supply required.

AI data-centre demand

The largest expected sources of new demand by 2050 are AI data-centre resilience storage systems, humanoid and service robotics, aviation and defence batteries, lithium-7 molten-salt nuclear reactors, ceramic carbon-capture sorbents and industrial robotics.

Fusion energy remains strategically important because it could create demand for lithium isotopes, particularly lithium-6, but the broader opportunity spans electrochemical, nuclear, thermal-management, photonic and specialty chemical applications.

Lithium’s appeal across those sectors stems from its unique physical and chemical properties. The metal’s light weight and electrochemical characteristics make it central to advanced batteries and solid electrolytes, while lithium isotopes play specialised roles in nuclear technologies. Lithium compounds are also used in high-temperature carbon-capture systems, industrial cooling applications, photonic materials and hydrogen-rich shielding technologies.

The study cautions that substitution remains the biggest risk to long-term demand growth outside batteries. Sodium-ion batteries, flow batteries, iron-air systems, hydrogen storage and alternative aviation fuels could reduce lithium consumption in some applications. Alternative cooling chemicals, photonic materials and reactor designs could also limit adoption. The risk is greatest where lithium acts primarily as an energy-storage medium and lowest where the lithium atom or isotope is essential to the technology itself.

For lithium producers, the findings suggest strategic flexibility may become increasingly valuable. While battery-grade carbonate and hydroxide are expected to remain the industry’s core products, specialty materials such as lithium metal, lithium fluoride, lithium bromide, lithium chloride, lithium silicates, lithium hydrides and isotope products could emerge as higher-value markets. Governments and manufacturers may also need to treat lithium refining, isotope production and recycling capabilities as strategic assets rather than niche industries.

The lithium industry may be entering a more diversified phase of growth. While EVs are likely to remain the dominant demand driver for decades, a broad portfolio of emerging technologies could create new markets that reshape supply chains and expand the strategic importance of the metal well beyond transportation.

* Juan Ignacio Guzmán is the CEO of GEM Mining Consulting