Chile lowers copper production outlook, raises price forecasts

Top copper supplier Chile lowered its production forecasts for this year and next, reinforcing expectations of tight global supplies that have pushed prices near record highs.

Chilean production is expected to fall 2% to 5.3 million metric tons this year, weighed down by lower ore grades, maintenance and operational constraints, state copper commission Cochilco said in its quarterly market outlook. Next year’s output is forecast to recover 4% to about 5.5 million tons.

The agency previously expected 5.6 million tons this year and 5.97 million tons for 2027. The lowered guidance from a country that accounts for almost a quarter of the world’s mined copper offers additional support for prices already buoyed by supply disruptions at major mines and accelerating demand from data centers and the energy transition.

“The global market continues to face unstable supply and recurring episodes of tightness,” Economy and Mining Minister Daniel Mas said in Tuesday’s report.

Cochilco raised its average copper price forecast to $5.55 a pound for this year from a previous estimate of $4.95 a pound. Copper is currently trading above $6 a pound in New York.

Globally, refined copper demand is expected to rise 1.5% this year and 2.3% in 2027, reaching 28.2 million and 28.8 million tons, respectively, with China remaining the main driver of consumption despite weakness in its property market.

Cochilco said the refined copper market would remain tight, projecting a small surplus of 12,000 tons in 2026 after last year’s estimated deficit of 124,000 tons.

(By James Attwood)