Copper price rises as Trump floats timeline for US to end Iran attacks

Copper rose after US President Donald Trump said the war on Iran could end within two to three weeks, sparking a relief rally for riskier assets battered by global growth fears.

Base metals — with the exception of aluminum — faced heavy downward pressure in March as hostilities in the Middle East disrupted commodity supplies and threatened an inflationary shock for the world economy. While Trump’s latest timeline isn’t necessarily fixed, the comments sent copper up as much as 1.3% Wednesday after last month’s slump of almost 8%.

There have also been signs of improving demand in the crucial Chinese market, especially after prices for the metal dipped below $12,000 a ton in the second half of March. Premiums for imports — a gauge of immediate appetite for the metal — rose to a nine-month high last week and stockpiles inside China have fallen sharply.

“Compared with some other metals, copper has been holding up quite well,” said Xu Wanqiu, an analyst with Cofco Futures Co. “Chinese fundamentals are solid, and inventory drawdowns are happening rapidly.”

Copper on the London Metal Exchange traded 0.2% higher at $12,363.50 a ton as of 3:34 p.m. local time.

Copper started the year in bullish form, rising to a record above $14,500 a ton in January. Traders piled into the market as mines faltered, a rush of material to the US drained stockpiles elsewhere, and the artificial-intelligence boom lifted demand. But March brought worries about global growth to the fore, depressing prices, and they’re now roughly back where they began 2026.

Supply fears

Problems at key mining projects were also in focus Wednesday. Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. cut output guidance for its flagship operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo after a major flooding incident last year, while top global supplier Chile posted its lowest monthly output in nine years.

In the aluminum market, traders remain on edge as they await details on two Middle Eastern plants hit by Iranian missiles and drones at the weekend. Emirates Global Aluminium, the region’s top producer, said its facilities suffered “significant damage,” while Aluminium Bahrain said it was assessing the extent of the impact. That fueled big gains for the metal this week.

EGA has moved to sell large volumes of alumina — the key raw material needed to make aluminum — following the strikes, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. The attacks have created fresh risks to supply in the region, adding to production cuts at smelters that are facing shortages of raw materials flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The impact on the global aluminum market remains highly uncertain,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Aurelia Waltham wrote in a note. The bank removed about 1.5% of global supply from its 2026 forecasts as a result of the hits, and raised its price outlook to $3,200 a ton this year.

Risks to prices “remain skewed to the upside if damage is more severe than our assumption, or if further supply disruptions occur as a result of strikes or lack of raw materials/gas availability,” they said.

Aluminum rose as much as 1.9% on Wednesday after closing near a four-year high on Tuesday.

Read More: Prolonged Iran war would hammer top copper miners