Lead prices slump as Trafigura lifts LME stockpiles to a record

Lead prices fell toward the lowest since 2022 after Trafigura Group made a second record-breaking delivery of metal into London Metal Exchange warehouses.

Stockpiles tracked by the exchange surged by 86,500 tons to 456,575 tons on Wednesday, reaching the highest level in data going back to 1970. Trafigura was behind the surge in stocks, as well as a massive inflow seen on Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing commercially sensitive information. 

The inflows have taken place in Singapore, where a mountain of lead has accumulated over recent years as flatlining demand for lead-acid batteries has fueled growing surpluses of the metal.

Singapore’s emergence as a global storage hub for both lead and zinc is partly due to the fact that once metal has arrived in the densely populated city state, it can be costly and logistically complex to move it back out. That’s beneficial to warehousing companies that earn daily rent on metal that’s delivered into their depots, and they often offer incentives to trading houses to keep metal flowing in.

Those dynamics have opened up lucrative opportunities for Trafigura and other trading houses, which can cut deals with warehouses to share the rent on metal they deliver that’s collected from future owners.

The complex trading ecosystem that’s built up around the LME’s warehousing network means that analysts and investors are often cautious about interpreting individual stock flows as a signal of shifts in underlying market fundamentals. But the massive deliveries come as the lead industry braces for an ongoing loosening in supply as rising sales of electric vehicles sap demand for lead-acid batteries in internal combustion engine cars. 

With demand largely tied to lead-acid batteries, “consumption faces structural headwinds from a sector in decline,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note last week. “Sustained growth in secondary output and weak demand growth continue to drive the market surplus.”

Lead prices were down 0.8% at $1,852 a ton on the LME, falling along with most other metals. They earlier touched $1,840 a ton, hitting the lowest since April 2025 and nearing the lowest since 2022.  

(By Julian Luk and Mark Burton)