Mapping the market: Metals and mining shares may be perking up

Shares of U.S. metals and mining companies have been on a volatile ride this year, including a nearly 25% fall for the sector in recent weeks, but ​technical analysis indicates that things could be looking up.

The sector, measured by the State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF, has been in a long-term uptrend that shifted into high gear in 2025. Over the past year it has been pulled between opposing forces — tariffs, the AI-driven buildout, ​bets on a commodities supercycle, and worries that the war in Iran could hurt global growth ​and stoke inflation.

The ETF tumbled to its 2025 low of 99.95 on Wednesday, ⁠according to data supplied by LSEG, but then began rebounding. The 99.95 low marked what chartists ​call structural support — a price floor where buyers have repeatedly overwhelmed sellers — and the bounce suggests that ​support held firm.

Adding to the bullish case, the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, turned higher from oversold territory just as the rebound got underway. RSI is a widely used gauge of market momentum. When RSI turns higher from low, ​oversold levels, chart watchers often see it as an early clue that sellers are losing steam ​and buyers are stepping back in.

The recent low in the ETF also sits at the bottom of a price ‌channel that ⁠appears to be forming a bull flag, a pattern in which a market pauses within an uptrend before resuming its climb. The top of the flag is marked by a trendline connecting January’s high of 134.46 to June’s peak of 132.87, so a breakout remains distant. Still, the rebound highlights a ​staircase of Fibonacci retracement ​levels and other resistance ⁠spots at 107.71, the 109.50-110 area, 112.51 and 116.40. Fibonacci retracement levels are points where markets often return after a big move.

A sustained break below ​structural support near the 99.95 low and the channel’s floor, near 99.40, ​would undercut this ⁠bullish case and raise the risk of further declines.

What the chart shows:

• Bounce off 2025 low of 99.95 confirms structural support
• Pattern resembles a bull flag, with the top near the 134.46 and 132.87 highs
• Key levels to ⁠watch: 107.71, ​the 109.50-110 area, 112.51 and 116.40; support at 99.95 low ​and 99.40

(Christopher Romano is ​a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Burton Frierson and Nia Williams)