Norilsk Nickel sees 2026 global palladium surplus of 300,000 oz

Russia’s Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest palladium producer, said on Tuesday it expects a global surplus of palladium of 0.3 million ounces (Moz) in 2026 and 0.2 Moz in 2027, excluding investment and stock movements.

It expects palladium demand, excluding investment, to be 9.1 Moz in 2026 and 9.3 Moz in 2027, while supply is seen at 9.4 Moz and 9.5 Moz respectively.

Preliminary estimates suggest that investment demand for palladium could reach 0.3 Moz in 2026, effectively bringing the market back into balance, with a similar trend in 2027, Nornickel said in a market review.

Nornickel sees global primary palladium production falling 2% year-on-year in 2026 to 6.1 Moz, pressured by lower grades in Russia, continued caution among North American producers, and broadly stable output in South Africa. In 2027, it expects production to reach 6.2 Moz.

Russia is likely to make the most notable contribution to palladium supply growth in 2027, as production recovers from low-grade mining areas that affected 2026 and gradually benefits from the ramp-up of the new Chernogorskoye deposit, owned by Russian Platinum.

Palladium production in Russia is expected to decline to 2.6 Moz in 2026 before returning to growth to 2.7 Moz in 2027, supported by the Chernogorskoye deposit.

Russian Platinum plans to start production at its Arctic polymetallic project in November, after which PGM-bearing concentrate will be supplied to Nornickel under an offtake agreement. Over the long term, the project could add about 0.5 Moz of palladium to Russia’s output annually.

Nornickel, which is also a major producer of refined nickel, said it expects a global nickel surplus of around 20,000 metric tons this year, rising to 55,000 tons in 2027.

It cautioned that the nickel outlook remained highly dependent on the situation in Indonesia, the world’s dominant producer of the metal.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova and Alessandra Prentice; Editing by Andrew Heavens and Joe Bavier)