Demand for gold will drop 9% to 4,375 metric tons this year with central banks’ appetite falling from last year’s all-time high, consultancy Metals Focus said, adding that gold prices would be under pressure in the second half of 2023.
The net official sector purchases jumped 141% to a record high of 1,083 metric tons in 2022 amid de-dollarization activity, inflated by Western sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.
These purchases are due to fall but remain at a historically strong 600 metric tons in 2023, Metals Focus said in its annual Gold Focus report on Wednesday.
Supply of gold, according to the consultancy, will rise by 2% to 4,881 metric tons this year with higher mine production, recycling and return of hedging by miners.
Metals Focus predicted the gold price would average a new all-time high of $1 890 per troy ounce in 2023, up 5% from $1 800 last year. On Tuesday, the precious metal was trading at around $1 962 an ounce.
The rise of average 2023 price will be caused by the year-to-date rally due to expectations the US Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle was almost over and that rate cuts were likely.
The consultancy said expectations of US rate cuts before 2023 ends are too aggressive and that the Fed still has room to keep rates high for longer – meaning pressure on gold in the second half of 2023.
The downside will be limited by strong demand for gold from the official sector as well as retail and institutional investors.
(By Polina Devitt)