Op-Ed: Chile must act fast as Argentina inches ahead in copper race

Chile entered a new phase with President Kast’s government on March 11, and early signals from the executive branch have been positive. Authorities appointed Daniel Mas as dual minister of Economy and Mining, prioritized mining projects worth more than $62 million for faster processing through the Environmental Impact Assessment System (SEIA), and pledged to accelerate a historic portfolio exceeding $105 billion. These steps aim to restore investor confidence and unlock stalled development.

Five key measures are under way. The government has prioritized projects within the SEIA, including Minera Tres Valles and Distrito Pleito Phase 3, totalling $62 million. However, this remains modest compared with larger structural projects such as Nueva Centinela, Rajo Inca Phase 2, RT Phase II and the El Abra expansion, which together represent $7.511 billion. 

Authorities are also implementing the Framework Law for Sectoral Authorisations (MAS Law) to ease permitting bottlenecks, while evaluating tax stability mechanisms — critical for competing with Argentina’s RIGI, which guarantees 30 years of stability, or 40 years for strategic projects. Additional reforms target speculation in mining concessions, while $17 billion in projects have already entered the SEIA in the first weeks of the new administration.

Despite these advances, Chile’s broader pipeline highlights structural challenges. state-run agency Cochilco estimates the 2024–2033 investment portfolio at $104.549 billion, but 81% is brownfield and only 19% greenfield, signalling maintenance rather than growth. Exploration remains limited at just 6% of global investment, underscoring the absence of a robust national exploration strategy. While plans for a geological exploration programme are under discussion, tangible results may take decades.

Chile is moving in the right direction but too slowly. Argentina approved 12 projects worth $26 billion under its Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI) in just 18 months, compared with Chile’s prioritisation of $62 million. This gap reflects a mismatch between the urgency of the global copper market and the scale of Chile’s response.

Global fundamentals reinforce the need for speed. Wood Mackenzie forecasts a structural copper deficit of 6–7 million tonnes annually by 2035. The Chilean Mining Chamber projects copper prices at $5.05 per pound in 2026, while Bank of America estimates $6.12 in 2027. Projects not under construction by 2028 risk missing peak pricing.

Chile’s recent performance has been mixed. Copper output stagnated at around 5.4 million tonnes annually between 2014 and 2024, while ore grades declined from 1% to 0.6%. A lack of consistent public policy has deterred junior explorers and limited new discoveries. In lithium, state-led strategies centred on Corfo lacked clarity, even as Argentina attracted significant investment across the Lithium Triangle. Argentina is now expected to surpass Chile in lithium production within five to eight years.

There have been positive developments. Chile consolidated its mining royalty regime in 2024, advanced a National Lithium Strategy through public-private partnerships, and saw its investment portfolio reach a 10-year high. The proposed $53 billion Anglo American–Teck merger, announced in 2025, could integrate Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca, adding 175,000 tonnes of annual production and creating one of the world’s largest copper operations. Still, progress must accelerate.

Argentina’s development and measures

Argentina’s policy framework offers a stark contrast. President Milei’s administration has used the RIGI to attract $33.876 billion in project commitments, with 73% linked to copper. The regime provides long-term tax stability, allows profit repatriation without exchange controls, and streamlines approvals within 45 days. Major players including Rio Tinto (RTZ), BHP, Lundin Mining and First Quantum have responded quickly.

The flagship Vicuña project, backed by BHP and Lundin Mining, represents $18 billion in investment and could become one of the world’s five largest copper mines. Argentina’s regulatory simplicity and speed have become key competitive advantages, particularly compared with Chile’s lengthy permitting timelines.

Argentina is also advancing rapidly in lithium. With 30% of the Lithium Triangle, high-grade brines exceeding 800 mg/L and expanding direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology, the country has positioned itself as a leading emerging supplier. Projects such as Rio Tinto’s $2.724 billion Rincón development and 35 projects in Salta highlight its growth trajectory. Unlike Chile, Argentina allows lithium leasing under standard mining rules, avoiding complex Special Lithium Operation Contracts (CEOLs).

In copper, Argentina holds significant untapped potential. Projects such as Vicuña, El Pachón and Los Azules rank among the largest undeveloped deposits globally. While Argentina does not yet produce copper, output could begin around 2030 and reach 1–2 million tonnes annually by 2035, placing it among the world’s top five producers.

Chile retains its leadership in mining, but it has lost momentum. To remain competitive, it must adopt faster permitting, strengthen exploration, and implement a coherent, investment-friendly framework comparable to RIGI, while leveraging its strengths in smelting and refining.

Chile faces a clear choice: protect its current position and risk gradual decline, or pursue an ambitious strategy to regain leadership. 

“In mining, there are no shortcuts. Success is built with mature engineering, genuine social license, and clear rules.”

* Manuel Viera Flores is the President of the Chilean Mining Chamber