Copper price hits record in US on supply risks, tariff bets

Copper extended its rally on Wednesday, with prices hitting a record in the US market, as mounting supply risks continue to lift outlook while dispelling concerns over demand from the Iran war.

Futures contracts on the Comex surged 2.4% to a record $6.69/lb., widening the premium over those traded on the London Metal Exchange amid expectations the US will impose tariffs on refined metal imports.

The LME prices, in comparison, rose 1.6% to nearly $14,200/t in London — just $300 shy of the all-time high of $14,500 set back in January.

Following a sharp decline during most of March, the red-colored metal has now bounced back in a big way, as fresh supply concerns have emerged on top of the mine disruptions that already drove prices 40% in 2025.

Now, the Gulf region has choked off a significant portion of the world’s supply of sulfur, a critical input in many copper-mining operations. Analysts estimate that about a fifth of the world’s mined supply relies on sulfuric acid, and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could impact as much as 4.8 million tonnes of production.

Further downstream, worsening raw material shortages at mines have already started to affect refined metal output. In top consumer China, refined copper output fell 3% in April and may decline further this month, according to Beijing Antaike Information Co.

The slew of supply issues, combined with resilient demand, is driving a notable recovery in industrial metals as worries over the Iran conflict ease, said Li Xuezhi, head of research at Chaos Ternary Futures Co., in a note to Bloomberg on Wednesday.

Another catalyst is a potentially broader US tariff placed on copper, which had driven prices to a record in New York last summer. Investors are now waiting for an updated report by the US Commerce Secretary on the domestic copper market, which is due by June 30. In anticipation of the tariff decision, arbitrage opportunities for traders have recently reopened, pushing US copper inventories higher.

So far this year, copper prices have risen by more than 10%.