Shares versus price

Folks, further to my last edition (published here March 9th), I’ve attached a rather good multi year chart compliments of Richard Rhodes and Stockcharts.com. It compares the GDX miner index with gold prices, and you can clearly see the pennant forming on the right — which usually heralds a big move to come.

Richard is predicting an upside breakout to the highs of 2003 (see the left side of the chart) and while that may eventually occur, you must bear in mind that it’s a long term chart. I actually think we’ll continue sideways until the latter part of this year. The three-year version of the GDX:$GOLD below illustrates what I mean.

Of course a big move could also happen without share prices increasing at all – IF – gold prices drop. Everything comes back to price in the end, and predicting that is absolute guesswork.

Careful out there.

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