The Standard Bank commodities team’s always cogent analyses revealed a stunner this week.
The specialists at the commodities trading arm of the bank – which is being bought by China’s ICBC and may get a table at the daily London gold fix – are not the first to point out the correlation between real US bond yields and the price of gold.
But the chart plotted in the London and Johannesburg-based firm’s latest research note to show the connection puts the trouble ahead for the gold price in stark relief.
Analyst Leon Westgate, says the house view is that “real interest rates in the US will continue to rise in coming months as the Fed monetary policy normalises, which will put downward pressure on gold. The relationship between real long-term interest rates in the US (as proxied by 10-year US inflation-linked bonds) and the gold price is strongly negative.”
10-year real yields (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities or TIPS) are currently at 0.59% which seems consistent with today’s gold price of around $1,310 an ounce.
Absolute future gold price levels probably shouldn’t be divined from this chart, but it does point to one thing: If you buy into this theory, the gold price is going down.